I came in with a negative predisposition because I really don’t like politics and particularly US politics as a cause area. But nothing you are saying seems crazy, particularly given your endorsement and personal experience.
Historically, there have been ~24 Republicans vs ~19 Democrats as senators (and 1 independent) from Oregon, so partisan affiliation doesn’t seem that important. “$1 million for an additional 2% chance of winning” seems a bit high on the probability side, but I’m not actually familiar with the money flows of US elections. Checking the money spent in past Oregon elections, it seems plausible. The upside of a few billions/tens of billions spent more effectively also seems about right, but the long tail could also be very positive.
My guess is that it seems very likely he will lose, but it seems worth it anyways; of 10-20 bets like this I sort of expect that a few will succeed. Recommendation: Defer to the author, donate. Optionally, I would also like to see a very liquid prediction market on his chances of success, and I estimate that would cost $5-$10k.
Historically, there have been ~24 Republicans vs ~19 Democrats as senators (and 1 independent) from Oregon, so partisan affiliation doesn’t seem that important.
A better way of looking at this is the partisan lean of his particular district. The answer is D+7, meaning that in a neutral environment (i.e. an equal number of Democratic and Republican votes nationally), a Democrat would be expected to win this district by 7 percentage points.
This year is likely to be a Republican “wave” year, i.e. Republicans are likely to outperform Democrats (the party out of power almost always overperforms in midterm elections); however, D+7 is a substantial lean that’s hard to overcome. I’d give Carrick a 75% chance of winning the general election conditional on winning the primary. His biggest challenge is winning the primary election.
In addition to the fact that representatives aren’t senators, looking to the distant past and other districts (not to mention total number of officials rather than number of elections won) is a bad way to predict elections. Based on recent elections, good election handicappers rate this seat Likely Democratic; if Carrick wins the primary, he will likely win the general election.
I came in with a negative predisposition because I really don’t like politics and particularly US politics as a cause area. But nothing you are saying seems crazy, particularly given your endorsement and personal experience.
Historically, there have been ~24 Republicans vs ~19 Democrats as senators (and 1 independent) from Oregon, so partisan affiliation doesn’t seem that important. “$1 million for an additional 2% chance of winning” seems a bit high on the probability side, but I’m not actually familiar with the money flows of US elections. Checking the money spent in past Oregon elections, it seems plausible. The upside of a few billions/tens of billions spent more effectively also seems about right, but the long tail could also be very positive.
My guess is that it seems very likely he will lose, but it seems worth it anyways; of 10-20 bets like this I sort of expect that a few will succeed. Recommendation: Defer to the author, donate. Optionally, I would also like to see a very liquid prediction market on his chances of success, and I estimate that would cost $5-$10k.
A better way of looking at this is the partisan lean of his particular district. The answer is D+7, meaning that in a neutral environment (i.e. an equal number of Democratic and Republican votes nationally), a Democrat would be expected to win this district by 7 percentage points.
This year is likely to be a Republican “wave” year, i.e. Republicans are likely to outperform Democrats (the party out of power almost always overperforms in midterm elections); however, D+7 is a substantial lean that’s hard to overcome. I’d give Carrick a 75% chance of winning the general election conditional on winning the primary. His biggest challenge is winning the primary election.
In addition to the fact that representatives aren’t senators, looking to the distant past and other districts (not to mention total number of officials rather than number of elections won) is a bad way to predict elections. Based on recent elections, good election handicappers rate this seat Likely Democratic; if Carrick wins the primary, he will likely win the general election.
I’m wasn’t aiming for a 5-star probability, only a rough estimate. For the record, I corrected that before you made your comment.
In lieu of a liquid real-money market, I started a pair of Manifold markets for:
Carrick Flynn’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination
Carrick Flynn’s chances of winning the general
Whoops, senator != representative. For the house of representatives, it’s ~34 republicans vs ~31 democrats