This page collects expert opinions on the spread of COVID-19, and has one quote giving 40-70% and one quote giving 60% (and no other concrete predictions). Marc Lipsitch gave his reasoning for the 40-70% prediction here.
Note that he said “Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.” Based on my observations (reading a large amount of COVID-19 discussions and news stories), I think China, Taiwan, and Singapore have effective controls, South Korea is borderline, and Japan, US, and most of Europe are not likely to have effective controls. (And of course less developed countries almost certainly will not have effective controls.)
“We cannot do what China has done here, as that would start a panic, runs on supermarkets and banks, and any contingency measure has a negative effect on businesses and the real economy,” said a senior German government official involved in the crisis management.
Thanks for reporting the incorrect link. I left off the “https://” (I copied it from my Chrome address bar, which leaves off the protocol if you click on the address bar instead of pressing “alt-d”; very annoying), and it still worked on ea.greaterwrong.com but not on forum.effectivealtruism.org.
This page collects expert opinions on the spread of COVID-19, and has one quote giving 40-70% and one quote giving 60% (and no other concrete predictions). Marc Lipsitch gave his reasoning for the 40-70% prediction here.
Note that he said “Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.” Based on my observations (reading a large amount of COVID-19 discussions and news stories), I think China, Taiwan, and Singapore have effective controls, South Korea is borderline, and Japan, US, and most of Europe are not likely to have effective controls. (And of course less developed countries almost certainly will not have effective controls.)
ETA: For example:
Thanks, important info.
The second link is incorrect; should be: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
Thanks for reporting the incorrect link. I left off the “https://” (I copied it from my Chrome address bar, which leaves off the protocol if you click on the address bar instead of pressing “alt-d”; very annoying), and it still worked on ea.greaterwrong.com but not on forum.effectivealtruism.org.
Very helpful; thanks!