COVID-19 may infect 40-70 percent of the world’s population.
What is your source for this? This seems way too high given that even in Hubei (population: 58.5 million), only about 1.1 in 1,000 people (total: 67,103) had confirmed cases.
This page collects expert opinions on the spread of COVID-19, and has one quote giving 40-70% and one quote giving 60% (and no other concrete predictions). Marc Lipsitch gave his reasoning for the 40-70% prediction here.
Note that he said “Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.” Based on my observations (reading a large amount of COVID-19 discussions and news stories), I think China, Taiwan, and Singapore have effective controls, South Korea is borderline, and Japan, US, and most of Europe are not likely to have effective controls. (And of course less developed countries almost certainly will not have effective controls.)
“We cannot do what China has done here, as that would start a panic, runs on supermarkets and banks, and any contingency measure has a negative effect on businesses and the real economy,” said a senior German government official involved in the crisis management.
Thanks for reporting the incorrect link. I left off the “https://” (I copied it from my Chrome address bar, which leaves off the protocol if you click on the address bar instead of pressing “alt-d”; very annoying), and it still worked on ea.greaterwrong.com but not on forum.effectivealtruism.org.
I’ve also heard that 40-70% figure (e.g. from German public health officials like the director of Germany’s equivalent of the CDC). But I’m confused for the reason you stated. So I’d also appreciate an answer.
Some hypotheses (other than the 40-70% being just wrong) I can think of, though my guess is none of them is right:
(a) The 40-70% are a very long-term figure like risk of life-time infection assuming that the virus becomes permanently endemic.
(b) There being many more undetected than confirmed cases.
(c) The slowdown in new cases in Hubei only being temporary, i.e. expecting it to accelerate again and reaching 40-70% there.
(d) Thinking that the virus will spread more widely outside of Hubei, e.g. because one expects less drastic prevention/mitigation measures. [ETA: This comment seems to point to (d).]
My guess is that this is referencing Harvard School of Public Health’s Marc Lipsitch who was quoted projecting this in this article (I think, I’m now paywalled so can’t confirm) somewhat out of context and subsequently defended the range in this podcast.
Dr. Lipsitch is well respected in public health and epidemiology communities, FWIW
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted.
It looks like other users have clarified that figure, but I was referring to a quote by Mark Lipsitch in the Atlantic article I linked to. Thank you for pointing that out.
What is your source for this? This seems way too high given that even in Hubei (population: 58.5 million), only about 1.1 in 1,000 people (total: 67,103) had confirmed cases.
This page collects expert opinions on the spread of COVID-19, and has one quote giving 40-70% and one quote giving 60% (and no other concrete predictions). Marc Lipsitch gave his reasoning for the 40-70% prediction here.
Note that he said “Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.” Based on my observations (reading a large amount of COVID-19 discussions and news stories), I think China, Taiwan, and Singapore have effective controls, South Korea is borderline, and Japan, US, and most of Europe are not likely to have effective controls. (And of course less developed countries almost certainly will not have effective controls.)
ETA: For example:
Thanks, important info.
The second link is incorrect; should be: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
Thanks for reporting the incorrect link. I left off the “https://” (I copied it from my Chrome address bar, which leaves off the protocol if you click on the address bar instead of pressing “alt-d”; very annoying), and it still worked on ea.greaterwrong.com but not on forum.effectivealtruism.org.
Very helpful; thanks!
I’ve also heard that 40-70% figure (e.g. from German public health officials like the director of Germany’s equivalent of the CDC). But I’m confused for the reason you stated. So I’d also appreciate an answer.
Some hypotheses (other than the 40-70% being just wrong) I can think of, though my guess is none of them is right:
(a) The 40-70% are a very long-term figure like risk of life-time infection assuming that the virus becomes permanently endemic.
(b) There being many more undetected than confirmed cases.
(c) The slowdown in new cases in Hubei only being temporary, i.e. expecting it to accelerate again and reaching 40-70% there.
(d) Thinking that the virus will spread more widely outside of Hubei, e.g. because one expects less drastic prevention/mitigation measures. [ETA: This comment seems to point to (d).]
My guess is that this is referencing Harvard School of Public Health’s Marc Lipsitch who was quoted projecting this in this article (I think, I’m now paywalled so can’t confirm) somewhat out of context and subsequently defended the range in this podcast.
Dr. Lipsitch is well respected in public health and epidemiology communities, FWIW
Thanks! Here’s the quote:
It looks like other users have clarified that figure, but I was referring to a quote by Mark Lipsitch in the Atlantic article I linked to. Thank you for pointing that out.