I am not very involved in AI Safety but have heard multiple times from big funders in the ecosystem over time something like âeverything in AI Safety that SHOULD be funded IS being funded. What we really need are good people working on it.â Iâd expect e.g. OP to be excited to fund great people working in the space, so curious why you think the people who will apply to your network arenât getting funded otherwise.
Just for context: I am very FOR a more diverse funding ecosystem so I think getting more people to fund more projects who have different strategies for funding and risk tolerances is going in the right direction.
Evaluating charities is more like evaluating startups than evaluating bridge-builders
You can tell if somebody is a good bridge builder. We have good feedback loops on bridges and we know why bridges work. For bridges, you can have a small number of experts making the decisions and it will work out great.
However, with startups, nobody really knows what works or why. Even with Y Combinator, potentially the best startup evaluator in the world, the vast majority of their bets donât work out. We donât know why startups work and the feedback loops are slow and ambiguous.
Charity startups and projects are more like startups, but theyâre actually worse. At least with for-profits you can tell eventually if something is profitable or not. With impact, you can never know for sure. Like, we can still discuss whether Eliezer has been net positive or not because of his potential influence on the launch of OpenAI. And we can even question whether AMF is net positive, because of its flow-through effects on factory farmed animals. Heck, we can even question the whole framework of consequentialism, and maybe itâs better to be a deontologist, etc.
So, given that Y Combinator misses tons of opportunities in a field with better feedback loops and a better understanding of how things work, we should expect that to be even more the case for large EA funders.
People have different values
With YC, at least everybodyâs trying to maximize the same goalâmoney. With nonprofits, you might actually be pursuing different goals. Even if everybodyâs a utilitarian, thereâs a bunch of different sorts of utilitarians you can be.
People can spot different talent
Different people can spot different types of talent or theories of change based on their background. For example, people whoâve spent their entire lives in academia might be better at spotting academic talent but less good at spotting entrepreneurial talent, and vice versa.
It allows for more geographical diversity
Right now itâs much harder to get funding if youâre not based in the Bay Area or London. This will help fix that.
The big funders often only accept certain grant sizes
Big funders usually donât have the time to process smaller grants, leading to a lot of people missing out.
Often itâs just one person evaluating a grant, leading to increased odds of missed opportunities
Due to time constraints, big EA funders often only have one person review an application before making a decision. This can lead to all sorts of noise in the assessments, like them making worse decisions because theyâre hungry, tired, distracted, feeling emotional, donât know much about the field, misunderstood the application, had a bias towards the applicant, etc etc.
I remember reading an article here about grant applications being noisy but canât find it. Kat-points to anybody who finds it and links it in a reply!
Finally, Iâve definitely seen a lot of people rejected for funding who I think were doing good work or went on to do it anyways. Itâs really easy for people to be refused funding for all sorts of reasons
In general, I really want to push back against the meme in our community that if you donât get funding from one of the big EA funders, that must mean your project isnât good.
For most things in this sort of category, even the absolute best have to try many times before they get accepted. Even the best scientists have to apply to a lot of different schools and grants. Even the best authors get rejected from publishing companies. Even the best founders have to ask dozens to hundreds of investors before they get funded. Many people whoâve been rejected by tons of EA orgs for jobs or grants have gone on to do great things.
Thereâs room for disagreement on how to do the most good, and thatâs what I love about EA. And now, hopefully, with more diverse funders, we can turn that productive disagreement into action, and then impact.
There are many factors going into that issue, but I think the biggest are the bottlenecks within the pipeline that brings money from OP to individual donation opportunities. Most directly, OP has a limited staff and a lot of large, important grants to manage. They often donât have the spare attention, time, or energy to solicit, vet, and manage funding to the many individuals and small organizations that need funding.
LTFF and other grantmakers have similar issues. The general idea is that just there are many inefficiencies in the grantmaker â ??? â grantee market. The market is especially inefficient for funding opportunities that are small (because the fixed costs of granting remain high) and weird (because the downside risk is magnified for large grantmakers).
Worse, I hear that a big issue is that everyone asks this same question âWhy arenât you already funded by [funders that are not me]?â of new ventures who lack existing personal connections to the big funders, which leads them to never get off the ground.
Cool initiative!
I am not very involved in AI Safety but have heard multiple times from big funders in the ecosystem over time something like âeverything in AI Safety that SHOULD be funded IS being funded. What we really need are good people working on it.â Iâd expect e.g. OP to be excited to fund great people working in the space, so curious why you think the people who will apply to your network arenât getting funded otherwise.
Just for context: I am very FOR a more diverse funding ecosystem so I think getting more people to fund more projects who have different strategies for funding and risk tolerances is going in the right direction.
Good question! Here are a few thoughts on that:
Evaluating charities is more like evaluating startups than evaluating bridge-builders
You can tell if somebody is a good bridge builder. We have good feedback loops on bridges and we know why bridges work. For bridges, you can have a small number of experts making the decisions and it will work out great.
However, with startups, nobody really knows what works or why. Even with Y Combinator, potentially the best startup evaluator in the world, the vast majority of their bets donât work out. We donât know why startups work and the feedback loops are slow and ambiguous.
Charity startups and projects are more like startups, but theyâre actually worse. At least with for-profits you can tell eventually if something is profitable or not. With impact, you can never know for sure. Like, we can still discuss whether Eliezer has been net positive or not because of his potential influence on the launch of OpenAI. And we can even question whether AMF is net positive, because of its flow-through effects on factory farmed animals. Heck, we can even question the whole framework of consequentialism, and maybe itâs better to be a deontologist, etc.
So, given that Y Combinator misses tons of opportunities in a field with better feedback loops and a better understanding of how things work, we should expect that to be even more the case for large EA funders.
People have different values
With YC, at least everybodyâs trying to maximize the same goalâmoney. With nonprofits, you might actually be pursuing different goals. Even if everybodyâs a utilitarian, thereâs a bunch of different sorts of utilitarians you can be.
People can spot different talent
Different people can spot different types of talent or theories of change based on their background. For example, people whoâve spent their entire lives in academia might be better at spotting academic talent but less good at spotting entrepreneurial talent, and vice versa.
It allows for more geographical diversity
Right now itâs much harder to get funding if youâre not based in the Bay Area or London. This will help fix that.
The big funders often only accept certain grant sizes
Big funders usually donât have the time to process smaller grants, leading to a lot of people missing out.
Often itâs just one person evaluating a grant, leading to increased odds of missed opportunities
Due to time constraints, big EA funders often only have one person review an application before making a decision. This can lead to all sorts of noise in the assessments, like them making worse decisions because theyâre hungry, tired, distracted, feeling emotional, donât know much about the field, misunderstood the application, had a bias towards the applicant, etc etc.
I remember reading an article here about grant applications being noisy but canât find it. Kat-points to anybody who finds it and links it in a reply!
Finally, Iâve definitely seen a lot of people rejected for funding who I think were doing good work or went on to do it anyways. Itâs really easy for people to be refused funding for all sorts of reasons
In general, I really want to push back against the meme in our community that if you donât get funding from one of the big EA funders, that must mean your project isnât good.
For most things in this sort of category, even the absolute best have to try many times before they get accepted. Even the best scientists have to apply to a lot of different schools and grants. Even the best authors get rejected from publishing companies. Even the best founders have to ask dozens to hundreds of investors before they get funded. Many people whoâve been rejected by tons of EA orgs for jobs or grants have gone on to do great things.
Thereâs room for disagreement on how to do the most good, and thatâs what I love about EA. And now, hopefully, with more diverse funders, we can turn that productive disagreement into action, and then impact.
I agree with you and also want to push back on the meme that âall the good stuff gets fundedâ.
There are many factors going into that issue, but I think the biggest are the bottlenecks within the pipeline that brings money from OP to individual donation opportunities. Most directly, OP has a limited staff and a lot of large, important grants to manage. They often donât have the spare attention, time, or energy to solicit, vet, and manage funding to the many individuals and small organizations that need funding.
LTFF and other grantmakers have similar issues. The general idea is that just there are many inefficiencies in the grantmaker â ??? â grantee market. The market is especially inefficient for funding opportunities that are small (because the fixed costs of granting remain high) and weird (because the downside risk is magnified for large grantmakers).
Worse, I hear that a big issue is that everyone asks this same question âWhy arenât you already funded by [funders that are not me]?â of new ventures who lack existing personal connections to the big funders, which leads them to never get off the ground.