I’m strongly inclined to support this, but the abstract doesn’t say what the money would be spent on, or explain how this can lead to more spending on previously neglected R&D. Care to comment before I read the entire document?
Also, the very first graph says “CO2 emissions by region in the NPS”, but what’s the NPS?
Also, what is your relationship to the stated authors Hart & Cunliff [edit: I see they are not the authors, rather they are evaluated by the document], and how does Bill Gates fit in?
explain how this can lead to more spending on previously neglected R&D
Mission Innovation is an international agreement under which many countries have coordinated to spend part of GDP on clean energy R&D. Unfortunately, signatory countries are currently not on track to fulfill their pledges. One of the focus areas of ITIF’s clean energy innovation program is the Mission Innovation agreement, the importance of which Hart has highlighted since the agreements inception in 2016.
Mission Innovation tries to solve the ‘free-rider problem’, i.e. countries not spending as much as others (relative to their GDP) on clean energy R&D.
Because the agreement attempts to coordinate many countries to spend a non-trivial part of GDP on clean energy R&D, Mission Innovation provides great leverage.
This is a typical policy instrument and there are many precedents for spending part of GDP or GNI on global public goods to increase global cooperation on an issue.
For instance:
NATO member states hold each other accountable to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP
OECD member states have committed to spending 0.7% of GNI on aid
EU member states spend around 0.7% of GNI to finance the EU budget
EU member states have agreed to spend 3% of GDP by 2020 (3.5% of GDP by 2025) on research and development
Though countries often fall short of their commitments, international agreements to spend part of GDP adds up to massive amounts. The international agreements to spend on global public goods might have also contributed to these issues being higher up on the policy agenda.
Recently Cunliff wrote a policy brief titled “Omission Innovation: The Missing Element in Most Countries’ Response to Climate Change”. There, Cunliff argues that “only significantly greater levels of public investment in clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) will produce the level of innovation necessary to dramatically reduce emissions from unabated fossil fuel consumption.” Cunliff highlights that countries are not on track to fulfill their Mission Innovation pledges and “If the member countries stay on their current feeble growth trajectory, [Mission Innovation] will reach only 50% of its target.”
Another example of ITIF’s work on this is a recent op-ed by Hart in which he calls for the US to lead on international coordination of long-duration grid storage R&D.
what the money would be spent on
We think the main mechanism of their impact will be high-quality, unbiased policy research on smarter spending on clean energy R&D. Communicating this research to policy-makers might then result in policy changes. We imagine this to happen through typical think tank outputs such as books, reports, policy briefs, blogs, conferences, workshops, commentaries, formal briefings and informal discussions with policy-makers, government officials, and key stakeholders.
ITIF could spend money productively by hiring staff such as policy researchers or assistants. In fact, ITIF has recently hired for another Senior Policy Analyst in Clean Energy Innovation to scale up, but seems to only have secured funding for one year so far.
Hiring competent staff for several years can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. The typical budget/staff ratio at the top 20 US think tanks is roughly $153,000—ITIF’s ratio is very similar at ~$152,000.
Conservative case: $500,000 over three years ($167,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 1 additional staff.
Medium case: $1,500,000 over three years ($500,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 3 additional staff.
Optimistic case: $2,000,000 over three years ($667,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 4 additional staff.
Note that the funds will be intentionally restricted only to the ITIF clean energy innovation program. However, within clean energy innovation Hart and Cunliff can use the money flexibly in whatever way they see fit. For instance, they might decide that it is better to spend funds on travel to give more talks or organize events and workshops on clean energy innovation.
Also, the very first graph says “CO2 emissions by region in the NPS”, but what’s the NPS?
Sorry this is International Energy Agency slang—I’ve added this to our website. NPS = New Policies Scenario. The NPS aims to provide a sense of where today’s policy ambitions seem likely to take the energy sector. It incorporates not just the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, but also the likely effects of announced policies, including the Nationally Determined Contributions made for the Paris Agreement.
what is your relationship to the stated authors Hart & Cunliff
For this grant evaluation, we cold contacted ITIF, who we had no prior contact and so declare no competing interests.
The most important consideration is that their work focuses on the most effective policy: higher and smarter spending on clean energy R&D.
In other words, our search for a funding opportunity in climate change was very theoretically motivated: we first considered what the most effective policy area is, and only then looked for organizations with a focus on clean energy R&D policy. ITIF fit the bill perfectly.
I’ve added this to the website as well.
how does Bill Gates fit in?
We use his explainer video because it’s very succinct and in our quotes section as an endorsement for our view:
““If we create the right environment for innovation, we can accelerate the pace of progress, develop and deploy new solutions, and eventually provide everyone with reliable, affordable energy that is carbon free. We can avoid the worst climate-change scenarios while also lifting people out of poverty, growing food more efficiently, and saving lives by reducing pollution.
To create this future we need to take several steps:
One step is to lay the foundation for innovation by drastically increasing government funding for research on clean energy solutions. Right now, the world spends only a few billion dollars a year on researching early-stage ideas for zero-carbon energy. It should be investing two or three times that much.
Why should governments fund basic research? For the same reason that companies tend not to: because it is a public good. The benefits to society are far greater than the amount that the inventor can capture.”
Bill Gates
Philanthropist, Gates Foundation”
The Breakthrough Energy Coalition, a private sector coalition of billionaires led by Bill Gates, has started a venture to invest in breakthrough energy projects.
As far as I know they focus exclusively to get billionaires to invest directly in private energy companies.
The Gates foundation also does not make grants within climate policy, but focuses on US education and global development.
Thus Gates does not directly fund climate change policy research and this might be reason to think that this area is still neglected.
Generally, clean energy innovation is neglected by philanthropists. US philanthropists gave only $115,000 in grants to promote government clean energy R&D spending and only $20,000 to promote the role of government in fostering innovation annually on average from 2011-2015. This suggests that there are likely still increasing returns to scale.
Note: The word ‘unbiased’ sets off very loud alarm bells for me. I trust you, so I know you’re using it with good intentions, but if a stranger talked about investing in ‘unbiased research’ I’d think they’re either naïve or selling something. All research is biased.
Can you expand on this claim? Do you mean that all research has non-zero bias (but some could be very close to 0 bias), that all research has significant bias towards the hypothesis or framework it’s working in, or something else?
I mean that all research has significant bias based on the researcher’s beliefs and theoretical framework, especially in the social sciences. Some methodologies are more robust than others, and some researchers do a better job of being aware of and clear about their own point of view, but everyone makes choices about how to answer a research question which tend to change the answer you get.
I assume Hauke means something like “not funded by oil and gas,” but I read “completely objective and rational,” which I just don’t think is possible.
You’re absolutely correct that biases and beliefs often creep into many kinds of researchers.
I just meant to convey that ITIF is much more unbiased and non-partisan than one might expect and certainly more than many think tanks with a clear political leaning.
I’m strongly inclined to support this, but the abstract doesn’t say what the money would be spent on, or explain how this can lead to more spending on previously neglected R&D. Care to comment before I read the entire document?
Also, the very first graph says “CO2 emissions by region in the NPS”, but what’s the NPS?
Also, what is your relationship to the stated authors Hart & Cunliff [edit: I see they are not the authors, rather they are evaluated by the document], and how does Bill Gates fit in?
Mission Innovation is an international agreement under which many countries have coordinated to spend part of GDP on clean energy R&D. Unfortunately, signatory countries are currently not on track to fulfill their pledges. One of the focus areas of ITIF’s clean energy innovation program is the Mission Innovation agreement, the importance of which Hart has highlighted since the agreements inception in 2016.
Mission Innovation tries to solve the ‘free-rider problem’, i.e. countries not spending as much as others (relative to their GDP) on clean energy R&D. Because the agreement attempts to coordinate many countries to spend a non-trivial part of GDP on clean energy R&D, Mission Innovation provides great leverage.
This is a typical policy instrument and there are many precedents for spending part of GDP or GNI on global public goods to increase global cooperation on an issue. For instance:
NATO member states hold each other accountable to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP
OECD member states have committed to spending 0.7% of GNI on aid
EU member states spend around 0.7% of GNI to finance the EU budget
EU member states have agreed to spend 3% of GDP by 2020 (3.5% of GDP by 2025) on research and development
Though countries often fall short of their commitments, international agreements to spend part of GDP adds up to massive amounts. The international agreements to spend on global public goods might have also contributed to these issues being higher up on the policy agenda.
Recently Cunliff wrote a policy brief titled “Omission Innovation: The Missing Element in Most Countries’ Response to Climate Change”. There, Cunliff argues that “only significantly greater levels of public investment in clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) will produce the level of innovation necessary to dramatically reduce emissions from unabated fossil fuel consumption.” Cunliff highlights that countries are not on track to fulfill their Mission Innovation pledges and “If the member countries stay on their current feeble growth trajectory, [Mission Innovation] will reach only 50% of its target.” Another example of ITIF’s work on this is a recent op-ed by Hart in which he calls for the US to lead on international coordination of long-duration grid storage R&D.
We think the main mechanism of their impact will be high-quality, unbiased policy research on smarter spending on clean energy R&D. Communicating this research to policy-makers might then result in policy changes. We imagine this to happen through typical think tank outputs such as books, reports, policy briefs, blogs, conferences, workshops, commentaries, formal briefings and informal discussions with policy-makers, government officials, and key stakeholders.
ITIF could spend money productively by hiring staff such as policy researchers or assistants. In fact, ITIF has recently hired for another Senior Policy Analyst in Clean Energy Innovation to scale up, but seems to only have secured funding for one year so far. Hiring competent staff for several years can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. The typical budget/staff ratio at the top 20 US think tanks is roughly $153,000—ITIF’s ratio is very similar at ~$152,000.
Conservative case: $500,000 over three years ($167,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 1 additional staff. Medium case: $1,500,000 over three years ($500,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 3 additional staff. Optimistic case: $2,000,000 over three years ($667,000/year), equivalent to the mean salary of 4 additional staff.
Note that the funds will be intentionally restricted only to the ITIF clean energy innovation program. However, within clean energy innovation Hart and Cunliff can use the money flexibly in whatever way they see fit. For instance, they might decide that it is better to spend funds on travel to give more talks or organize events and workshops on clean energy innovation.
Sorry this is International Energy Agency slang—I’ve added this to our website. NPS = New Policies Scenario. The NPS aims to provide a sense of where today’s policy ambitions seem likely to take the energy sector. It incorporates not just the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, but also the likely effects of announced policies, including the Nationally Determined Contributions made for the Paris Agreement.
For this grant evaluation, we cold contacted ITIF, who we had no prior contact and so declare no competing interests.
The most important consideration is that their work focuses on the most effective policy: higher and smarter spending on clean energy R&D.
In other words, our search for a funding opportunity in climate change was very theoretically motivated: we first considered what the most effective policy area is, and only then looked for organizations with a focus on clean energy R&D policy. ITIF fit the bill perfectly.
I’ve added this to the website as well.
We use his explainer video because it’s very succinct and in our quotes section as an endorsement for our view:
““If we create the right environment for innovation, we can accelerate the pace of progress, develop and deploy new solutions, and eventually provide everyone with reliable, affordable energy that is carbon free. We can avoid the worst climate-change scenarios while also lifting people out of poverty, growing food more efficiently, and saving lives by reducing pollution.
To create this future we need to take several steps:
One step is to lay the foundation for innovation by drastically increasing government funding for research on clean energy solutions. Right now, the world spends only a few billion dollars a year on researching early-stage ideas for zero-carbon energy. It should be investing two or three times that much.
Why should governments fund basic research? For the same reason that companies tend not to: because it is a public good. The benefits to society are far greater than the amount that the inventor can capture.”
Bill Gates Philanthropist, Gates Foundation”
The Breakthrough Energy Coalition, a private sector coalition of billionaires led by Bill Gates, has started a venture to invest in breakthrough energy projects.
As far as I know they focus exclusively to get billionaires to invest directly in private energy companies.
The Gates foundation also does not make grants within climate policy, but focuses on US education and global development.
Thus Gates does not directly fund climate change policy research and this might be reason to think that this area is still neglected.
Generally, clean energy innovation is neglected by philanthropists. US philanthropists gave only $115,000 in grants to promote government clean energy R&D spending and only $20,000 to promote the role of government in fostering innovation annually on average from 2011-2015. This suggests that there are likely still increasing returns to scale.
Note: The word ‘unbiased’ sets off very loud alarm bells for me. I trust you, so I know you’re using it with good intentions, but if a stranger talked about investing in ‘unbiased research’ I’d think they’re either naïve or selling something. All research is biased.
Can you expand on this claim? Do you mean that all research has non-zero bias (but some could be very close to 0 bias), that all research has significant bias towards the hypothesis or framework it’s working in, or something else?
I mean that all research has significant bias based on the researcher’s beliefs and theoretical framework, especially in the social sciences. Some methodologies are more robust than others, and some researchers do a better job of being aware of and clear about their own point of view, but everyone makes choices about how to answer a research question which tend to change the answer you get.
I assume Hauke means something like “not funded by oil and gas,” but I read “completely objective and rational,” which I just don’t think is possible.
You’re absolutely correct that biases and beliefs often creep into many kinds of researchers.
I just meant to convey that ITIF is much more unbiased and non-partisan than one might expect and certainly more than many think tanks with a clear political leaning.