They could find someone who agrees with Tyler, work out some measurement for the influence EA has on the world, and bet against each other on where that measurement will be several years or decades down the line.
Plausible influence measures include:
The amount of money moved to EA-aligned charities
The number of people who browse the forum
The number of federal politicians &/or billionaires who subscribe to EA ideas
Depending on the terms, I’d be willing to take the pro side of this bet (i.e. the side that agrees with Tyler). It could be set up on https://longbets.org/
They could find someone who agrees with Tyler, work out some measurement for the influence EA has on the world, and bet against each other on where that measurement will be several years or decades down the line.
Plausible influence measures include:
The amount of money moved to EA-aligned charities
The number of people who browse the forum
The number of federal politicians &/or billionaires who subscribe to EA ideas
Google trends data
The number of people who know about EA
The number of people who buy Doing Good Better
The number of charities who use the SNT framework to argue for more funding on their home-pages
The number of EA-aligned charities
...
Depending on the terms, I’d be willing to take the pro side of this bet (i.e. the side that agrees with Tyler). It could be set up on https://longbets.org/