I’m not even sure your arguments would be weak in that scenario.
Thanks—classic Toby point! I agree entirely that you need additional assumptions.
I was imagining someone who thinks that, say, there’s a 90% risk of unaligned AI takeover, and a 50% loss of EV of the future from other non-alignment issues that we can influence. So EV of the future is 5%.
If so, completely solving AI risk would increase the EV of the future to 50%; halving both would increase it only to 41%.
But, even so, it’s probably easier to halve both than to completely eliminate AI takeover risk, and more generally the case for a mixed strategy seems strong.
I was imagining someone who thinks that, say, there’s a 90% risk of unaligned AI takeover, and a 50% loss of EV of the future from other non-alignment issues that we can influence. So EV of the future is 25%.
I’m not understanding—if there’s no value in the 90%, and then 50% value in the remaining 10%, wouldn’t the EV of the future be 5%?
Thanks—classic Toby point! I agree entirely that you need additional assumptions.
I was imagining someone who thinks that, say, there’s a 90% risk of unaligned AI takeover, and a 50% loss of EV of the future from other non-alignment issues that we can influence. So EV of the future is 5%.
If so, completely solving AI risk would increase the EV of the future to 50%; halving both would increase it only to 41%.
But, even so, it’s probably easier to halve both than to completely eliminate AI takeover risk, and more generally the case for a mixed strategy seems strong.
I’m not understanding—if there’s no value in the 90%, and then 50% value in the remaining 10%, wouldn’t the EV of the future be 5%?
Argh, thanks for catching that! Edited now.