I think I would actually be for this, as long as the resolution criteria can be made clear, and at least in the beginning it can only be for people who already have a large online presence .
One potential issue is if the resolution criteria is worded the wrong way, perhaps something like “there will be at least one news article which mentions negative allegations against person X,” it may encourage unethical people to try to purposely spread false negative allegations in order to game the market. The resolution criteria would therefore have to be very carefully thought about so that sort of thing doesn’t happen.
I think I would actually be for this, as long as the resolution criteria can be made clear, and at least in the beginning it can only be for people who already have a large online presence .
One potential issue is if the resolution criteria is worded the wrong way, perhaps something like “there will be at least one news article which mentions negative allegations against person X,” it may encourage unethical people to try to purposely spread false negative allegations in order to game the market. The resolution criteria would therefore have to be very carefully thought about so that sort of thing doesn’t happen.
Sure, that’s a failure mode. I would only support it if the resolution criteria were around verified accusations. Mere accusations cannot be enough.