Hey George, I disagree with all the all arguments here except the last one. But I do share your concern with this idea. It feels icky. But as I say, I don’t think your args hold water.
If the market was “would a newspaper publish verified accusations that Bob lied about what happened in the room” the market would stabilise much lower than 50%. Likely no newspaper would publish an article on this. It’s not about what happened it’s about whether an article will be published stating Bob has acted badly.
As for previous convictions, if Bob knows he’s innocent and that no articles are likely to be published on new events, he and those who trust him can bet “no” on the market. And they will likely win. If anything, bettors should be wary of markets based on hearsay, or where the accused has unrelated convictions. I might bet no on those markets. I think the standard for a credible news org publishing an article with verified claims of fraud is actually very high, even with previous claims.
As for a general question about the damage these markets do, what about the damage fraud does? I think it’s easy to compare to the status quo, but currently charlatans are able to operate under the radar for years. This suggestion would make it easier to combine data. If you see a market about someone you know is shifty that’s already quite high, you might be tempted to bet, then contact a journalist.
As for testing it out, I strongly agree that it should be tested. And I think science fraud is a good place to start. It’s comparatively less controversial than other scandals.
Hey George, I disagree with all the all arguments here except the last one. But I do share your concern with this idea. It feels icky. But as I say, I don’t think your args hold water.
If the market was “would a newspaper publish verified accusations that Bob lied about what happened in the room” the market would stabilise much lower than 50%. Likely no newspaper would publish an article on this. It’s not about what happened it’s about whether an article will be published stating Bob has acted badly.
As for previous convictions, if Bob knows he’s innocent and that no articles are likely to be published on new events, he and those who trust him can bet “no” on the market. And they will likely win. If anything, bettors should be wary of markets based on hearsay, or where the accused has unrelated convictions. I might bet no on those markets. I think the standard for a credible news org publishing an article with verified claims of fraud is actually very high, even with previous claims.
As for a general question about the damage these markets do, what about the damage fraud does? I think it’s easy to compare to the status quo, but currently charlatans are able to operate under the radar for years. This suggestion would make it easier to combine data. If you see a market about someone you know is shifty that’s already quite high, you might be tempted to bet, then contact a journalist.
As for testing it out, I strongly agree that it should be tested. And I think science fraud is a good place to start. It’s comparatively less controversial than other scandals.
Where do you think I’m wrong here?