I hadn’t thought of this and I’m actually intrigued—it seems like prediction markets might specifically be good for situations where everyone ‘knows’ something is up but no one wants to be the person to call it out. The big problem to my mind is the resolution criterion: even if someone’s a fraud, it can easily be ten years before there’s a big article proving it.
Disclaimer that I’ve given this less than ten minutes of thought, but I’m now imagining a site pitched at journalists as an aggregated, anonymous ‘tip jar’ about fraud and misconduct. I think lots of people would at least look at that when deciding which stories to pursue. (Paying sources, or relying on sources who’d gain monetarily from an article about how someone is a fraud, is extremely not okay by journalistic ethics, which limits substantially what you can do here.)
I don’t think resolution criteria area problem. A published article in an agreed set of major newspapers. It’s okay if it resolves no for a few years before it resolves yes. You need relatively short time horizons (1 year) for the markets to function.
I don’t understand how your site would work. Want to describe it?
I hadn’t thought of this and I’m actually intrigued—it seems like prediction markets might specifically be good for situations where everyone ‘knows’ something is up but no one wants to be the person to call it out. The big problem to my mind is the resolution criterion: even if someone’s a fraud, it can easily be ten years before there’s a big article proving it.
Disclaimer that I’ve given this less than ten minutes of thought, but I’m now imagining a site pitched at journalists as an aggregated, anonymous ‘tip jar’ about fraud and misconduct. I think lots of people would at least look at that when deciding which stories to pursue. (Paying sources, or relying on sources who’d gain monetarily from an article about how someone is a fraud, is extremely not okay by journalistic ethics, which limits substantially what you can do here.)
I don’t think resolution criteria area problem. A published article in an agreed set of major newspapers. It’s okay if it resolves no for a few years before it resolves yes. You need relatively short time horizons (1 year) for the markets to function.
I don’t understand how your site would work. Want to describe it?