Might not convince you but afaik the effective giving space (GWWC, TLYCS, Effektiv Spenden and others ) has experienced basically zero or even negative growth in the last 2 years.
AMF is even down more than 50% year over year and in general there are probably few if any markets where effective giving has reached even 0.1% of all donations.
I consider this extremely disappointing and that’s why I’m open to experiments on how to reach (much) more people.
Besides there are many people in EA who believe that money directed at avoiding x-risks will go > 10x further than trying to fight extreme poverty. Might be true but I still don’t think we should get rid of all the GiveWell recommended charities on Effektiv Spenden (probably even for their instrumental value alone).
In the short run it’s possible that posting recommendations about whatever causes are currently getting mainstream media attention might attract more donations. But in the long run it’s important that donors be able to trust that EA evaltuators will make their donation recommendations honestly and transparently, even when that trades off with marketing to new donors. Prioritizing transparent analysis (even when it leads to conclusions that some donors might find offputting) over advertising & broad donor appeal is a big part of the difference between EA and traditional charities like Oxfam.
EDIT: Retracted, see point below (misunderstood the linked data). Thanks for pointing this out!
I’m not sure I completely understand the full accounting shown in your link to the AMF page, but from what I get the example you gave looks misplaced:
Indeed, 2023 seemed to have marked a reduction by more than 50% of the incoming funds, but the two years prior to that show substantial increases (and before that another drop; maybe CoViD-related?); moreover, 2024 seems to become again a year of strong increase (already at 50% of 2023 funds in YTD). Maybe I’m misunderstanding something here, but at least this example seems to be in contradiction to the general pessimistic outlook in the first two paragraphs of your answer.
Note that the page says > Our financial year runs from 1st July to 30th June, i.e. FY 2024 is 1st July 2023 to 30th June 2024. so the “YTD 2024” numbers are for almost eight months, not two, and accordingly it looks like FY 2024 will have similar total revenue to FY 2023 (and substantially less than FY 2021 and FY 2022).
Might not convince you but afaik the effective giving space (GWWC, TLYCS, Effektiv Spenden and others ) has experienced basically zero or even negative growth in the last 2 years.
AMF is even down more than 50% year over year and in general there are probably few if any markets where effective giving has reached even 0.1% of all donations.
I consider this extremely disappointing and that’s why I’m open to experiments on how to reach (much) more people.
Besides there are many people in EA who believe that money directed at avoiding x-risks will go > 10x further than trying to fight extreme poverty. Might be true but I still don’t think we should get rid of all the GiveWell recommended charities on Effektiv Spenden (probably even for their instrumental value alone).
In the short run it’s possible that posting recommendations about whatever causes are currently getting mainstream media attention might attract more donations. But in the long run it’s important that donors be able to trust that EA evaltuators will make their donation recommendations honestly and transparently, even when that trades off with marketing to new donors. Prioritizing transparent analysis (even when it leads to conclusions that some donors might find offputting) over advertising & broad donor appeal is a big part of the difference between EA and traditional charities like Oxfam.
EDIT: Retracted, see point below (misunderstood the linked data). Thanks for pointing this out!
I’m not sure I completely understand the full accounting shown in your link to the AMF page, but from what I get the example you gave looks misplaced: Indeed, 2023 seemed to have marked a reduction by more than 50% of the incoming funds, but the two years prior to that show substantial increases (and before that another drop; maybe CoViD-related?); moreover, 2024 seems to become again a year of strong increase (already at 50% of 2023 funds in YTD). Maybe I’m misunderstanding something here, but at least this example seems to be in contradiction to the general pessimistic outlook in the first two paragraphs of your answer.
Note that the page says
> Our financial year runs from 1st July to 30th June, i.e. FY 2024 is 1st July 2023 to 30th June 2024.
so the “YTD 2024” numbers are for almost eight months, not two, and accordingly it looks like FY 2024 will have similar total revenue to FY 2023 (and substantially less than FY 2021 and FY 2022).
Fair point, thanks!