Great response J.T. This was me saying “I want these things thought about in a CEA that I suspect might not have been.” I actually think this is quite promising.
For 2, I don’t think this is something to just dismiss without calculations
For 3, yes. If someone died of coronary heart disease, there was a decent chance that they would get it without smoking. Or they had lung cancer and diabetes, there needs to be some factor you attribute to each, not just “they died of lung cancer from smoking” which is what happens in these organizations.
For 5, I’m concerned generally that LMIC have corrupt governments who, when they get more money, is actually net negative. I’m concerned about this as well in developed countries if they use it to start wars, etc. as well.
On the whole, I think this is still likely to come out as a strong intervention. I’m still more skeptical of policy changes and I think we likely over-estimate their odds of success but this still seems well worth trying.
Great response J.T. This was me saying “I want these things thought about in a CEA that I suspect might not have been.” I actually think this is quite promising.
For 1, divestment in this case means nothing IMO. Divestment is mainly a signalling thing. It doesn’t really do anything to reduce stock price for example. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/divestment
For 2, I don’t think this is something to just dismiss without calculations
For 3, yes. If someone died of coronary heart disease, there was a decent chance that they would get it without smoking. Or they had lung cancer and diabetes, there needs to be some factor you attribute to each, not just “they died of lung cancer from smoking” which is what happens in these organizations.
For 5, I’m concerned generally that LMIC have corrupt governments who, when they get more money, is actually net negative. I’m concerned about this as well in developed countries if they use it to start wars, etc. as well.
On the whole, I think this is still likely to come out as a strong intervention. I’m still more skeptical of policy changes and I think we likely over-estimate their odds of success but this still seems well worth trying.