I think your point 1 is a good starting point but I would add “in percentage terms compared to all other potential causes” and you have to be in the top 1% of that for EA to consider the cause neglected.
3. I didn’t make it. It is great though. I was talking about on a yearly basis in the last couple years. That said, I made the comment off memory so I could be wrong.
At some point, I kinda just want to say “ok, where has the forecasting money gone?”, and it seems to have overwhelmingly gone to community forecasting sites like Manifold and Metaculus. I don’t see anything like “paying 3 teams of 3 forecasters to compete against each other on some AI timelines questions”