Agreed; but I’d also add that I think in any role, the default assumption is that if you’re selected for the job, you’re likely to be at least somewhat better than the next best candidate. Applying for the job is a great way to find this out, and if you’re uncertain about the counterfactual, you can also be open with the team about this and ask them how much they prefer you to the next best candidate – I’ve done this before and got replies that I think are honest and open. (Though some care is needed with this reasoning: if everyone did this, they’d just end up down at the best candidate who doesn’t think to ask this.)
But yeah agree that the gap between you and the next best candidate is likely to be bigger for a less conventionally-appealing project.
(Additional musing this made me think of: there’s also the consideration that the next-best candidate also has a counterfactual, and if they’re aligned will probably themselves end up doing something else impactful if they don’t take this job. A bit of a rabbit hole, but I think can still be useful: e.g. you could consider whether you seem more or less dedicated to a high-impact career than the typical applicant for the job. Or could ask the hiring manager whether they had promising community-external candidates, and whether they think you being aligned adds a lot to how well you’ll do in the role.)
Additional musing this made me think of: there’s also the consideration that the next-best candidate also has a counterfactual, and if they’re aligned will probably themselves end up doing something else impactful if they don’t take this job
Agreed, if you or other people want to read about issues with naive counterfactuals, I briefly discuss it here.
Agreed; but I’d also add that I think in any role, the default assumption is that if you’re selected for the job, you’re likely to be at least somewhat better than the next best candidate. Applying for the job is a great way to find this out, and if you’re uncertain about the counterfactual, you can also be open with the team about this and ask them how much they prefer you to the next best candidate – I’ve done this before and got replies that I think are honest and open. (Though some care is needed with this reasoning: if everyone did this, they’d just end up down at the best candidate who doesn’t think to ask this.)
But yeah agree that the gap between you and the next best candidate is likely to be bigger for a less conventionally-appealing project.
(Additional musing this made me think of: there’s also the consideration that the next-best candidate also has a counterfactual, and if they’re aligned will probably themselves end up doing something else impactful if they don’t take this job. A bit of a rabbit hole, but I think can still be useful: e.g. you could consider whether you seem more or less dedicated to a high-impact career than the typical applicant for the job. Or could ask the hiring manager whether they had promising community-external candidates, and whether they think you being aligned adds a lot to how well you’ll do in the role.)
Agreed, if you or other people want to read about issues with naive counterfactuals, I briefly discuss it here.