For instance, I personally found it surprising how few people disbelieve AI being a major risk (only 23% disbelieve it being an extinction level risk)
Just to clarify, we don’t find in this study that only 23% of people disbelieve AI is an extinction risk. This study shows that of those who disagreed with the CAIS statement 23% explained this in terms of AI not causing extinction.
So, on the one hand, this is a percentage of a smaller group (only 26% of people disagreed with the CAIS statement in our previous survey) not everyone. On the other hand, it could be that more people also disbelieve AI is an extinction risk, but that wasn’t their cited reason for disagreeing with the statement, or maybe they agree with the statement but don’t believe AI is an extinction risk.
Fortunately, our previous survey looked at this more directly: we found 13% expressed that there was literally 0 probability of extinction from AI, though around 30% indicated 0-4% (the median was 15%, which is not far off some EA estimates). We can provide more specific figures on request.
Thanks!
Just to clarify, we don’t find in this study that only 23% of people disbelieve AI is an extinction risk. This study shows that of those who disagreed with the CAIS statement 23% explained this in terms of AI not causing extinction.
So, on the one hand, this is a percentage of a smaller group (only 26% of people disagreed with the CAIS statement in our previous survey) not everyone. On the other hand, it could be that more people also disbelieve AI is an extinction risk, but that wasn’t their cited reason for disagreeing with the statement, or maybe they agree with the statement but don’t believe AI is an extinction risk.
Fortunately, our previous survey looked at this more directly: we found 13% expressed that there was literally 0 probability of extinction from AI, though around 30% indicated 0-4% (the median was 15%, which is not far off some EA estimates). We can provide more specific figures on request.