For all of the new commenters: it would have been more valuable to comment when I asked this question, as I was considering trying to coordinate EAs using an assurance contract to provide enough volunteers to help his campaign win. Given how the comments turned out, I decided it was not worth pursuing and therefore assume the Wayne campaign will lose with 50-80% probability, moreso because I didn’t think EAs would buy-in (for better or worse) than due to having a sense of how good Wayne’s mayorship would actually be for the world on the object-level.
(Since basically no one gave a good, quantitative answer to the question beyond their own social-emotional reasoning.)
So I’ve moved on. In general, dialogue about an election is worth much less in expectation a couple weeks out from the election than it is in advance.
For all of the new commenters: it would have been more valuable to comment when I asked this question, as I was considering trying to coordinate EAs using an assurance contract to provide enough volunteers to help his campaign win. Given how the comments turned out, I decided it was not worth pursuing and therefore assume the Wayne campaign will lose with 50-80% probability, moreso because I didn’t think EAs would buy-in (for better or worse) than due to having a sense of how good Wayne’s mayorship would actually be for the world on the object-level.
(Since basically no one gave a good, quantitative answer to the question beyond their own social-emotional reasoning.)
So I’ve moved on. In general, dialogue about an election is worth much less in expectation a couple weeks out from the election than it is in advance.