[Question] What is the increase in expected value of effective altruist Wayne Hsiung being mayor of Berkeley instead of its current incumbent?

Please offer me a quan­ti­ta­tive es­ti­mate and sup­port­ing rea­son­ing what you think the ad­di­tional value is of hav­ing an EA like Wayne as mayor of Berkeley. In dol­lars, QALYs—what­ever makes sense to you.

Wayne is the leader of Direct Ac­tion Every­where. He is now run­ning for mayor of Berkeley.

Wayne has told me he wants to use ev­i­dence-based rea­son­ing for de­cid­ing city policy and has iden­ti­fied as EA for years. I am rea­son­ably con­fi­dent he would take ac­tions in fa­vor of cause ar­eas like an­i­mal welfare, poverty, and cli­mate change.

Con­sider im­me­di­ate im­pact and tail im­pact /​ n-or­der effects, the lat­ter which may pre­dom­i­nate. e.g. What are the chances this will un­lock ad­di­tional poli­ti­cal wins for us that would oth­er­wise be un­available?

This is very im­por­tant for de­cid­ing whether peo­ple in the EA move­ment (par­tic­u­larly in Berkeley) should co­or­di­nat­edly help him get elected, or not (and whether I should spear­head that hap­pen­ing, or not).

His cam­paign site: https://​​www.wayne­for­mayor.com/​​.