I consistently enjoy your posts, thank you for the time and energy you invest.
Robin Hanson is famous for critiques in the form of “X isn’t about X, it’s about Y.” I suspect many of your examples may fit this pattern. To wit, Kwame Appiah wrote that “in life, the challenge is not so much to figure out how best to play the game; the challenge is to figure out what game you’re playing.” Andrew Carnegie, for instance, may have been trying to maximize status, among his peers or his inner mental parliament. Elon Musk may be playing a complicated game with SpaceX and his other companies. To critique assumes we know the game, but I suspect we only have a dim understanding of ”the great game” as it’s being played today.
When we see apparent dysfunction, I tend to believe there is dysfunction, but more deeper in the organizational-civilizational stack than it may appear. I.e. I think both Carnegie and Musk were/are hyper-rational actors responding to a very complicated incentive landscape.
That said, I do think ideas get lodged in peoples’ heads, and people just don’t look. Fully agree with your general suggestion, “before you commit yourself to a lifetime’s toil toward this goal, spend a little time thinking about the goal.”
That said— I’m also loathe to critique doers too harshly, especially across illegible domains like human motivation. I could see how more cold-eyed analysis could lead to wiser aim in what things to build; I could also see it leading to fewer great things being built. I can’t say I see the full tradeoffs at this point.
I could see how more cold-eyed analysis could lead to wiser aim in what things to build; I could also see it leading to fewer great things being built
I think analysis really could help lead to more great things being built. It would be a complete catastrophe if someone said, “This analysis shows that SpaceX is less effective than bunkers… therefore we shouldn’t do either”
With analysis and optimization, funders could be given more assurance that these projects are great, and could correspondingly put more money into them. This is how the VC world works.
I think it’s very easy to pattern match “we could use analysis” with “really mediocre bureaucratic red-tape”, but that’s not at all what I think we can and should aim for.
I consistently enjoy your posts, thank you for the time and energy you invest.
Robin Hanson is famous for critiques in the form of “X isn’t about X, it’s about Y.” I suspect many of your examples may fit this pattern. To wit, Kwame Appiah wrote that “in life, the challenge is not so much to figure out how best to play the game; the challenge is to figure out what game you’re playing.” Andrew Carnegie, for instance, may have been trying to maximize status, among his peers or his inner mental parliament. Elon Musk may be playing a complicated game with SpaceX and his other companies. To critique assumes we know the game, but I suspect we only have a dim understanding of ”the great game” as it’s being played today.
When we see apparent dysfunction, I tend to believe there is dysfunction, but more deeper in the organizational-civilizational stack than it may appear. I.e. I think both Carnegie and Musk were/are hyper-rational actors responding to a very complicated incentive landscape.
That said, I do think ideas get lodged in peoples’ heads, and people just don’t look. Fully agree with your general suggestion, “before you commit yourself to a lifetime’s toil toward this goal, spend a little time thinking about the goal.”
That said— I’m also loathe to critique doers too harshly, especially across illegible domains like human motivation. I could see how more cold-eyed analysis could lead to wiser aim in what things to build; I could also see it leading to fewer great things being built. I can’t say I see the full tradeoffs at this point.
I think analysis really could help lead to more great things being built. It would be a complete catastrophe if someone said, “This analysis shows that SpaceX is less effective than bunkers… therefore we shouldn’t do either”
With analysis and optimization, funders could be given more assurance that these projects are great, and could correspondingly put more money into them. This is how the VC world works.
I think it’s very easy to pattern match “we could use analysis” with “really mediocre bureaucratic red-tape”, but that’s not at all what I think we can and should aim for.