My read is that many bullshitters fairly deeply believe their BS. They often get to be pretty good at absorbing whatever position is maximally advantageous to them.
Things change if they have to put real money down on it (asking to bet, even a small amount, could help a lot), but these sorts of people are good at putting themselves into positions where they don’t need to make those bets.
There’s a lot of work on motivated reasoning out there. I liked Why Everyone (else) is a Hypocrite.
My read is that many bullshitters fairly deeply believe their BS. They often get to be pretty good at absorbing whatever position is maximally advantageous to them.
Things change if they have to put real money down on it (asking to bet, even a small amount, could help a lot), but these sorts of people are good at putting themselves into positions where they don’t need to make those bets.
There’s a lot of work on motivated reasoning out there. I liked Why Everyone (else) is a Hypocrite.