“I think nobody delved into the Cool Earth numbers because it wasn’t worth their time, because climate change charities generally aren’t competitive with the standard EA donation opportunities”
I’ve heard this a lot on EA circles, but I’m not sure why. I tried to compare the Coalition for Rainforest Nations and the Against Malaria Foundation in terms of lives saved and could barely start. It’s just too uncertain and complex for me—I don’t know how to translate CO2 reductions into lives saved, although I’m certain that climate change will kill people. Has anyone even tried to do this kind of comparison? A link would be appreciated.
John Broome has also tried to create a conversion factor from DALYs to CO2. I don’t think any particular estimate is credible. Estimates of the social cost of carbon are for the most part completely made up, unmoored from information on impacts. It’s also very hard because I think probably most of the costs of climate change are very indirect and highly uncertain, stemming from the political risks of unprecedented mass migration
There are two ways for climate change reduction to be considered effective by EA frameworks: long-term future and saving lives/improving utility in the presentish generation. There is some discussion here about long-term future. For saving lives, I agree it is tricky. When I attempted this in 2005, I tried to do it based on increased utility. Even though it is true that climate change will likely fall disproportionately on less-developed countries, when you look at the actual economic impacts, they accrue mostly to richer people because they make up the majority of the economy. This is especially true in the longer term, when it is likely that even current less-developed countries will be significantly richer than today. For typical cost climate interventions, I was getting they are about 2.5 orders of magnitude lower cost effectiveness than direct global poverty interventions. Another attempt is here (though you may not agree with his discounting). If Cool Earth really is significantly lower cost, of course that would improve the comparison. But I still think it is very unlikely to be better than direct global poverty interventions.
“I think nobody delved into the Cool Earth numbers because it wasn’t worth their time, because climate change charities generally aren’t competitive with the standard EA donation opportunities”
I’ve heard this a lot on EA circles, but I’m not sure why. I tried to compare the Coalition for Rainforest Nations and the Against Malaria Foundation in terms of lives saved and could barely start. It’s just too uncertain and complex for me—I don’t know how to translate CO2 reductions into lives saved, although I’m certain that climate change will kill people. Has anyone even tried to do this kind of comparison? A link would be appreciated.
John Broome has also tried to create a conversion factor from DALYs to CO2. I don’t think any particular estimate is credible. Estimates of the social cost of carbon are for the most part completely made up, unmoored from information on impacts. It’s also very hard because I think probably most of the costs of climate change are very indirect and highly uncertain, stemming from the political risks of unprecedented mass migration
There are two ways for climate change reduction to be considered effective by EA frameworks: long-term future and saving lives/improving utility in the presentish generation. There is some discussion here about long-term future. For saving lives, I agree it is tricky. When I attempted this in 2005, I tried to do it based on increased utility. Even though it is true that climate change will likely fall disproportionately on less-developed countries, when you look at the actual economic impacts, they accrue mostly to richer people because they make up the majority of the economy. This is especially true in the longer term, when it is likely that even current less-developed countries will be significantly richer than today. For typical cost climate interventions, I was getting they are about 2.5 orders of magnitude lower cost effectiveness than direct global poverty interventions. Another attempt is here (though you may not agree with his discounting). If Cool Earth really is significantly lower cost, of course that would improve the comparison. But I still think it is very unlikely to be better than direct global poverty interventions.