Aaron, I think we agree that the contraception section is not the strongest part of the post. On your specific point though, I don’t think it’s actually so bad to use the $9.4bn divided by 74 million.
You suspect that $9.4bn is calculated by looking at data from a much smaller sample and performing a simple extrapolation. So do I. But that’s actually exactly what we want—this advice is intended for people donating thousands, not billions. (This point is what I was trying to get at with my note about more-expensive “last-mile” contraceptive needs).
Good points all. Yours was a reasonable estimate, but the topic made it a good way to discuss certain general problems with this type of estimate, which are often more prominent in estimates made by other people in other situations.
(Also, I didn’t spot the “last mile” comment; sorry for missing that, and thanks for calling it to my attention.)
Aaron, I think we agree that the contraception section is not the strongest part of the post. On your specific point though, I don’t think it’s actually so bad to use the $9.4bn divided by 74 million.
You suspect that $9.4bn is calculated by looking at data from a much smaller sample and performing a simple extrapolation. So do I. But that’s actually exactly what we want—this advice is intended for people donating thousands, not billions. (This point is what I was trying to get at with my note about more-expensive “last-mile” contraceptive needs).
Also remember I’m aiming for a rough estimate.
Good points all. Yours was a reasonable estimate, but the topic made it a good way to discuss certain general problems with this type of estimate, which are often more prominent in estimates made by other people in other situations.
(Also, I didn’t spot the “last mile” comment; sorry for missing that, and thanks for calling it to my attention.)