While I agree that GiveDirectly is almost certainly not more cost-effective than AMF or other GiveWell top charities, the quote
it’s only valuable to know GiveDirectly’s cost-effectiveness if the amount of funding in the decision is 7 trillion times the cost of obtaining the information
rang alarm bells in my head in the sense of conflating confidence levels inside and outside an argument. But this is an extremely minor nitpick; let me also balance it out by saying I’m a fan of your uncertainty quantification of GW’s GiveDirectly CEA, which is a lot better than what I would’ve come up with (as someone who’s also spent long hours poring over their CEAs and, like Froolow, found their model architecture frustratingly confusing).
While I agree that GiveDirectly is almost certainly not more cost-effective than AMF or other GiveWell top charities, the quote
rang alarm bells in my head in the sense of conflating confidence levels inside and outside an argument. But this is an extremely minor nitpick; let me also balance it out by saying I’m a fan of your uncertainty quantification of GW’s GiveDirectly CEA, which is a lot better than what I would’ve come up with (as someone who’s also spent long hours poring over their CEAs and, like Froolow, found their model architecture frustratingly confusing).