Effective Altruism Movements in the past could have a wide range of results. For example, the Fabian Society might be an example of a positive impact. In the same time period, Communism would be another output of such a movement.
I think past performance is generally indicative of future results. Unless you have a good reason to think that ‘this time is different’, and you have a thesis for why the differences will lead to a materially changed outcome, it’s better to use the past as the base case.
Effective Altruism Movements in the past could have a wide range of results. For example, the Fabian Society might be an example of a positive impact. In the same time period, Communism would be another output of such a movement.
I think past performance is generally indicative of future results. Unless you have a good reason to think that ‘this time is different’, and you have a thesis for why the differences will lead to a materially changed outcome, it’s better to use the past as the base case.