Out of curiosity:
The phrase “Past performance is not indicative of future results” is often brought up when doing the kind of historic analysis you are presenting.
How much do you think this applies here?
Would things look different if we had an Effective Altruism Movement centuries ago?
Effective Altruism Movements in the past could have a wide range of results. For example, the Fabian Society might be an example of a positive impact. In the same time period, Communism would be another output of such a movement.
I think past performance is generally indicative of future results. Unless you have a good reason to think that ‘this time is different’, and you have a thesis for why the differences will lead to a materially changed outcome, it’s better to use the past as the base case.
Out of curiosity: The phrase “Past performance is not indicative of future results” is often brought up when doing the kind of historic analysis you are presenting.
How much do you think this applies here? Would things look different if we had an Effective Altruism Movement centuries ago?
Effective Altruism Movements in the past could have a wide range of results. For example, the Fabian Society might be an example of a positive impact. In the same time period, Communism would be another output of such a movement.
I think past performance is generally indicative of future results. Unless you have a good reason to think that ‘this time is different’, and you have a thesis for why the differences will lead to a materially changed outcome, it’s better to use the past as the base case.