mic comments on What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?

[mic]

With 50% probability, things will last twice as long as they already have. By this you mean that if something has lasted x amount of time so far, with 50% probability the total amount of time it will have lasted is at least 2x (i.e., it will continue to last at least another x years)?

[NunoSempere]

Yep, exactly right.