In a context where multiple forecasts have already been made (by you or other people), use the geometric mean of the odds as a blind aggregate:
If you want to get fancy, use an extremized version of this pooling method, by scaling the log odds by a factor a :
Satopaa et al have found that in practice a∈[1.161,3.921] gives the best results.
The latex isn’t displaying well (for me at least!) which makes this really hard to read. You just need to press ‘ctrl’/‘cmd’ and ‘4’ for inline latex and ‘ctrl’/‘cmd’ and ‘M’ for block :)
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In a context where multiple forecasts have already been made (by you or other people), use the geometric mean of the odds as a blind aggregate:
If you want to get fancy, use an extremized version of this pooling method, by scaling the log odds by a factor a :
Satopaa et al have found that in practice a∈[1.161,3.921] gives the best results.
The latex isn’t displaying well (for me at least!) which makes this really hard to read. You just need to press ‘ctrl’/‘cmd’ and ‘4’ for inline latex and ‘ctrl’/‘cmd’ and ‘M’ for block :)