Congratulations on winning the comment award! I definitely agree we should broaden the scenarios at which we look. You can see some work on the long term future impact of lesser catastrophes here and here.
Solar storm disruption
Yes, and other catastrophes that could disrupt electricity/​industry, such as high-altitude detonation of a nuclear weapon causing an electromagnetic pulse, coordinated cyber attack on electricity (perhaps narrow AI enabled), or an extreme pandemic causing the desertion of critical jobs may be important to work on.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and other climate change rendering the atmosphere unbreathable (this would be a good old fashioned X-risk, but seems like one that no-one has discussed—in Toby’s book he details some extreme scenarios where a lot of CO2 could be released that wouldn’t necessarily cause human extinction by global warming, but that some of my back-of-the-envelope maths based on his figures seemed consistent with this scenario)
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and other climate change substantially reducing IQs
Even 7000 ppm (0.7%) CO2 only has mild effects, and this is much higher than is plausible for Earth’s atmosphere in the next few centuries.
Various ‘normal’ concerns: antibiotic resistant bacteria; peak oil; peak phosphorus;
It is possible that overreaction to these could cause large enough increases in prices to make poor of the world significantly worse off, which could cause political instability and eventually lead to something like nuclear war. But I think it is much lower probability than those that could directly reduce food supply abruptly by order of magnitude 10%.
I think the moderate climate change, perhaps 2°C over a century, is difficult to find a direct route to a collapse. However, it would make a 10% food production shortfall from extreme weather more likely. And there are many other catastrophes that could plausibly produce a 10% food production shortfall, such as:
1 Abrupt climate change (10 C loss over a continent in a decade, which has happened before)
2 Extreme climate change that is slow (~10 C over a century)
3 Volcanic eruption like Tambora (which caused the year without a summer in 1816: famine in Europe)
4 Super weed that out-competes crops, if a coordinated attack
5 Super crop disease, if a coordinated attack
6 Super crop pest (animal), if a coordinated attack
7 Losing beneficial bacteria abruptly
8 Abrupt loss of bees
9 gamma ray burst, which could disrupt the ozone layer
major wars;
This could be a 10% infrastructure destruction, so I think it could destabilize. Disruption of the Internet for an extended period globally could also cut off a lot of essential services.
reverse Flynn effect;
Even if the Flynn effect has stalled in developed countries (has it?), I still think globally over this century we are going to have a massive positive Flynn effect as education levels rise.
Other concerns that I don’t know of, or that no-one has yet thought of
Congratulations on winning the comment award! I definitely agree we should broaden the scenarios at which we look. You can see some work on the long term future impact of lesser catastrophes here and here.
Yes, and other catastrophes that could disrupt electricity/​industry, such as high-altitude detonation of a nuclear weapon causing an electromagnetic pulse, coordinated cyber attack on electricity (perhaps narrow AI enabled), or an extreme pandemic causing the desertion of critical jobs may be important to work on.
Even 7000 ppm (0.7%) CO2 only has mild effects, and this is much higher than is plausible for Earth’s atmosphere in the next few centuries.
It is possible that overreaction to these could cause large enough increases in prices to make poor of the world significantly worse off, which could cause political instability and eventually lead to something like nuclear war. But I think it is much lower probability than those that could directly reduce food supply abruptly by order of magnitude 10%.
I think the moderate climate change, perhaps 2°C over a century, is difficult to find a direct route to a collapse. However, it would make a 10% food production shortfall from extreme weather more likely. And there are many other catastrophes that could plausibly produce a 10% food production shortfall, such as:
1 Abrupt climate change (10 C loss over a continent in a decade, which has happened before)
2 Extreme climate change that is slow (~10 C over a century)
3 Volcanic eruption like Tambora (which caused the year without a summer in 1816: famine in Europe)
4 Super weed that out-competes crops, if a coordinated attack
5 Super crop disease, if a coordinated attack
6 Super crop pest (animal), if a coordinated attack
7 Losing beneficial bacteria abruptly
8 Abrupt loss of bees
9 gamma ray burst, which could disrupt the ozone layer
This could be a 10% infrastructure destruction, so I think it could destabilize. Disruption of the Internet for an extended period globally could also cut off a lot of essential services.
Even if the Flynn effect has stalled in developed countries (has it?), I still think globally over this century we are going to have a massive positive Flynn effect as education levels rise.
Agreed, which is a reason that resilience and response are also important.