Thanks for you comment, it makes a good point . My comment was hastily written and I think my argument that you’re referring to is weak, but not as weak as you suggest.
At some points the author is specifically critiquing longtermism the philosophy (not what actual longtermists think and do) eg. when talking about genocide. It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
I’m also not sure that lots of longtermists (even of the Bostrom/hinge of history type) would agree that the quoted claim accurately represent their views
our current world is replete with suffering and death but will soon “be transformed into a perfect world of justice, peace, abundance, and mutual love.”
But, I do agree that some longtermists do think
there are likely to be very transformative events soon eg. within 50 years
in the long run, if they go well, these events will massively improve the human condition
And there’s some criticisms you can make of that kind of ideology that are similar to the criticisms the author makes.
It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
Agreed.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
Yeah this seems right, maybe with the caveat that Will has (as far as I know) mostly expressed skepticism about this being the most influential century, and I’d guess he does think this century is unusually influential, or at least unusually likely to be unusually influential.
And yes, I also agree that the quoted views are very extreme, and that longtermists at most hold weaker versions of them.
Thanks for you comment, it makes a good point . My comment was hastily written and I think my argument that you’re referring to is weak, but not as weak as you suggest.
At some points the author is specifically critiquing longtermism the philosophy (not what actual longtermists think and do) eg. when talking about genocide. It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
I’m also not sure that lots of longtermists (even of the Bostrom/hinge of history type) would agree that the quoted claim accurately represent their views
But, I do agree that some longtermists do think
there are likely to be very transformative events soon eg. within 50 years
in the long run, if they go well, these events will massively improve the human condition
And there’s some criticisms you can make of that kind of ideology that are similar to the criticisms the author makes.
Agreed.
Yeah this seems right, maybe with the caveat that Will has (as far as I know) mostly expressed skepticism about this being the most influential century, and I’d guess he does think this century is unusually influential, or at least unusually likely to be unusually influential.
And yes, I also agree that the quoted views are very extreme, and that longtermists at most hold weaker versions of them.