Granted, there are probably longtermists that do hold these views, but these views are not longtermism. I don’t know whether Bostrom (whose views seems to be the focus of the book) holds these views. Even if he does, these views are not longtermism
I haven’t read the top-level post (thanks for summarising!); but in general, I think this is a weak counterargument. If most people in a movement (or academic field, or political party, etc) holds a rare belief X, it’s perfectly fair to criticise the movement for believing X. If the movement claims that X isn’t a necessary part of their ideology, it’s polite for a critic to note that X isn’t necessarily endorsed as the stated ideology, but it’s important that their critique of the movement is still taken seriously. Otherwise, any movement can choose a definition that avoids mentioning the most objectionable part of their ideology without changing their beliefs or actions. (Similar to the motte-and-bailey fallacy). In this case, the author seems to be directly worried about longtermists’ beliefs and actions; he isn’t just disputing the philosophy.
Thanks for you comment, it makes a good point . My comment was hastily written and I think my argument that you’re referring to is weak, but not as weak as you suggest.
At some points the author is specifically critiquing longtermism the philosophy (not what actual longtermists think and do) eg. when talking about genocide. It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
I’m also not sure that lots of longtermists (even of the Bostrom/hinge of history type) would agree that the quoted claim accurately represent their views
our current world is replete with suffering and death but will soon “be transformed into a perfect world of justice, peace, abundance, and mutual love.”
But, I do agree that some longtermists do think
there are likely to be very transformative events soon eg. within 50 years
in the long run, if they go well, these events will massively improve the human condition
And there’s some criticisms you can make of that kind of ideology that are similar to the criticisms the author makes.
It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
Agreed.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
Yeah this seems right, maybe with the caveat that Will has (as far as I know) mostly expressed skepticism about this being the most influential century, and I’d guess he does think this century is unusually influential, or at least unusually likely to be unusually influential.
And yes, I also agree that the quoted views are very extreme, and that longtermists at most hold weaker versions of them.
I haven’t read the top-level post (thanks for summarising!); but in general, I think this is a weak counterargument. If most people in a movement (or academic field, or political party, etc) holds a rare belief X, it’s perfectly fair to criticise the movement for believing X. If the movement claims that X isn’t a necessary part of their ideology, it’s polite for a critic to note that X isn’t necessarily endorsed as the stated ideology, but it’s important that their critique of the movement is still taken seriously. Otherwise, any movement can choose a definition that avoids mentioning the most objectionable part of their ideology without changing their beliefs or actions. (Similar to the motte-and-bailey fallacy). In this case, the author seems to be directly worried about longtermists’ beliefs and actions; he isn’t just disputing the philosophy.
Thanks for you comment, it makes a good point . My comment was hastily written and I think my argument that you’re referring to is weak, but not as weak as you suggest.
At some points the author is specifically critiquing longtermism the philosophy (not what actual longtermists think and do) eg. when talking about genocide. It seems fine to switch between critiquing the movement and critiquing the philosophy, but I think it’d be better if the switch was made clear.
There are many longtermists that don’t hold these views (eg. Will MacAskill is literally about to publish the book on longtermism and doesn’t think we’re at an especially influential time in history, and patient philanthropy gets taken seriously by lots of longtermists).
I’m also not sure that lots of longtermists (even of the Bostrom/hinge of history type) would agree that the quoted claim accurately represent their views
But, I do agree that some longtermists do think
there are likely to be very transformative events soon eg. within 50 years
in the long run, if they go well, these events will massively improve the human condition
And there’s some criticisms you can make of that kind of ideology that are similar to the criticisms the author makes.
Agreed.
Yeah this seems right, maybe with the caveat that Will has (as far as I know) mostly expressed skepticism about this being the most influential century, and I’d guess he does think this century is unusually influential, or at least unusually likely to be unusually influential.
And yes, I also agree that the quoted views are very extreme, and that longtermists at most hold weaker versions of them.