If Iran actually does develop something of an atomic arsenal, it will likely find, following the experience of all other states so armed, that the bombs are essentially useless and a very considerable waste of money and effort
This claim strikes me as particularly dubious intuitively. I don’t have specific evidence in favor of my intuition, but I think I would want to see quite substantial evidence for Mueller’s claim to believe it, as I think my prior is driven by the following considerations:
At first glance, it seems that Iran’s adversaries are also concerned about the prospect of Iran acquiring nukes. For example, the US seems to be willing to pay a substantial cost in terms of tensions with European allies in order to take a tougher stance toward Iran, e.g. the Trump administration cancelling the nuclear deal. Similarly, there clearly were risks involved in deploying the Stuxnet cyber weapon against Iran. (This is an interesting case because Stuxnet was targeted specifically at Iran’s nuclear program; so the potential response “Iran’s adversaries are using the prospect of a nuclear Iran merely as a pretext to push through policies that hurt Iran more generally, e.g. economically” does not work in this case.)
More broadly, Mueller essentially seems to claim that there is some very widespread delusion: While in fact nuclear weapons are just a waste of money, all of the following actors are making the same epistemic error of believing the opposite (as indicated by their revealed preferences): most Democrats in the US; most Republicans in the US; most people across the political spectrum in Israel; the government of Saudi Arabia; both “moderate” and conservative politicians in Iran; the government of Russia, etc. What is more, incentives to correct this epistemic error surely aren’t super great, but they are not zero either: If, say, a Democratic US President is making a big foreign policy blunder by accepting considerable cost to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, why aren’t there more Republicans who jump onto this opportunity to embarrass the government? Why is the prospect of a nuclear Iran able to—at least to some extent—unite a diverse set of actors such as the US, the EU, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Russia behind a common foreign policy objective, i.e., to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?
I also think the claim flies in the face of common sense. In particular, Israel is a tiny country in a vulnerable geographic position, it has been attacked several times since its inception, and Iran has consistently taken a very hostile stance toward it (and not just via cheap talk, but also by e.g. sponsoring insurgent groups in Lebanon). At first glance, I find the suggestion that the additional option of (explicit or implicit) nuclear threats against Israel would not hurt Israel’s interests hard to believe. Similarly, the US has a history of recent interference in Middle Eastern countries via conventional wars, see Afghanistan and Iraq. I think an American attack on Iran with the objective of regime change within the next decade is at least plausible, and everyone knows this. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone has ever tried to attack a nuclear weapons state with a regime change objective. (AFAIK the only direct military conflicts between nuclear weapons states were a 1969 border conflict between China and the USSR, and the 1999 Kargil War between India and Pakistan—both cases in which all sides clearly had much more limited objectives.) Again, I think the idea that the US would invade an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is on its face implausible. If this is true, then possessing nuclear weapons would decrease one of the arguably major risks to Iranian sovereignty—so how can they be a “considerable waste of money and effort”?
Re direct military conflicts between nuclear weapons states: this might not exactly fit the definition of “direct” but I enjoyed skimming the mentions of nuclear weapons in this wikipedia on the yom kippur war, which saw a standoff between Israel (nuclear) and Egypt (not nuclear, but had reportedly been delivered warheads by USSR). There is some mention of Israel “threatening to go nuclear” possibly as a way of forcing the US to intervene with conventional military resources.
This claim strikes me as particularly dubious intuitively. I don’t have specific evidence in favor of my intuition, but I think I would want to see quite substantial evidence for Mueller’s claim to believe it, as I think my prior is driven by the following considerations:
At first glance, it seems that Iran’s adversaries are also concerned about the prospect of Iran acquiring nukes. For example, the US seems to be willing to pay a substantial cost in terms of tensions with European allies in order to take a tougher stance toward Iran, e.g. the Trump administration cancelling the nuclear deal. Similarly, there clearly were risks involved in deploying the Stuxnet cyber weapon against Iran. (This is an interesting case because Stuxnet was targeted specifically at Iran’s nuclear program; so the potential response “Iran’s adversaries are using the prospect of a nuclear Iran merely as a pretext to push through policies that hurt Iran more generally, e.g. economically” does not work in this case.)
More broadly, Mueller essentially seems to claim that there is some very widespread delusion: While in fact nuclear weapons are just a waste of money, all of the following actors are making the same epistemic error of believing the opposite (as indicated by their revealed preferences): most Democrats in the US; most Republicans in the US; most people across the political spectrum in Israel; the government of Saudi Arabia; both “moderate” and conservative politicians in Iran; the government of Russia, etc. What is more, incentives to correct this epistemic error surely aren’t super great, but they are not zero either: If, say, a Democratic US President is making a big foreign policy blunder by accepting considerable cost to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, why aren’t there more Republicans who jump onto this opportunity to embarrass the government? Why is the prospect of a nuclear Iran able to—at least to some extent—unite a diverse set of actors such as the US, the EU, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Russia behind a common foreign policy objective, i.e., to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?
I also think the claim flies in the face of common sense. In particular, Israel is a tiny country in a vulnerable geographic position, it has been attacked several times since its inception, and Iran has consistently taken a very hostile stance toward it (and not just via cheap talk, but also by e.g. sponsoring insurgent groups in Lebanon). At first glance, I find the suggestion that the additional option of (explicit or implicit) nuclear threats against Israel would not hurt Israel’s interests hard to believe. Similarly, the US has a history of recent interference in Middle Eastern countries via conventional wars, see Afghanistan and Iraq. I think an American attack on Iran with the objective of regime change within the next decade is at least plausible, and everyone knows this. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone has ever tried to attack a nuclear weapons state with a regime change objective. (AFAIK the only direct military conflicts between nuclear weapons states were a 1969 border conflict between China and the USSR, and the 1999 Kargil War between India and Pakistan—both cases in which all sides clearly had much more limited objectives.) Again, I think the idea that the US would invade an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is on its face implausible. If this is true, then possessing nuclear weapons would decrease one of the arguably major risks to Iranian sovereignty—so how can they be a “considerable waste of money and effort”?
Re direct military conflicts between nuclear weapons states: this might not exactly fit the definition of “direct” but I enjoyed skimming the mentions of nuclear weapons in this wikipedia on the yom kippur war, which saw a standoff between Israel (nuclear) and Egypt (not nuclear, but had reportedly been delivered warheads by USSR). There is some mention of Israel “threatening to go nuclear” possibly as a way of forcing the US to intervene with conventional military resources.
Interesting, thank you! I hadn’t been aware of this case.