Assuming there were only 4 experts predicting full automation by 2048 with 10 %, 20 %, 30 %, and 40 % chance, the middle half of experts would be predicting full automation by 2048 with 20 % to 30 % chance. If there were 1 k experts each predicting the probability of full automation by multiple dates, one could infer 1 k predictions for the probability of full automation for any given date, order such preductions by ascending order, and then report the 25th and 75th percentile predictions as the lower and upper bound of the middle half of predictions.
Hi Yarrow,
Assuming there were only 4 experts predicting full automation by 2048 with 10 %, 20 %, 30 %, and 40 % chance, the middle half of experts would be predicting full automation by 2048 with 20 % to 30 % chance. If there were 1 k experts each predicting the probability of full automation by multiple dates, one could infer 1 k predictions for the probability of full automation for any given date, order such preductions by ascending order, and then report the 25th and 75th percentile predictions as the lower and upper bound of the middle half of predictions.