I find this completely inscrutable. Iâm not saying thereâs anything wrong with it in terms of accuracy, itâs just way too in the weeds of the statistics for me to decipher whatâs going on.
For example, I donât know what a âmiddle halfâ or a âcentral halfâ is. I looked them up and now I know they are statistics terms, but it would be a lot of work for me to try to figure out what that quoted paragraph is trying to say.
Is AI Impacts going to run this survey again soon? Maybe they can phrase the questions differently in a new survey to avoid this level of confusion between different levels of AI capabilities.
Assuming there were only 4 experts predicting full automation by 2048 with 10 %, 20 %, 30 %, and 40 % chance, the middle half of experts would be predicting full automation by 2048 with 20 % to 30 % chance. If there were 1 k experts each predicting the probability of full automation by multiple dates, one could infer 1 k predictions for the probability of full automation for any given date, order such preductions by ascending order, and then report the 25th and 75th percentile predictions as the lower and upper bound of the middle half of predictions.
I find this completely inscrutable. Iâm not saying thereâs anything wrong with it in terms of accuracy, itâs just way too in the weeds of the statistics for me to decipher whatâs going on.
For example, I donât know what a âmiddle halfâ or a âcentral halfâ is. I looked them up and now I know they are statistics terms, but it would be a lot of work for me to try to figure out what that quoted paragraph is trying to say.
Is AI Impacts going to run this survey again soon? Maybe they can phrase the questions differently in a new survey to avoid this level of confusion between different levels of AI capabilities.
Hi Yarrow,
Assuming there were only 4 experts predicting full automation by 2048 with 10 %, 20 %, 30 %, and 40 % chance, the middle half of experts would be predicting full automation by 2048 with 20 % to 30 % chance. If there were 1 k experts each predicting the probability of full automation by multiple dates, one could infer 1 k predictions for the probability of full automation for any given date, order such preductions by ascending order, and then report the 25th and 75th percentile predictions as the lower and upper bound of the middle half of predictions.