Which kind of work it’s better to focus depends on the relative leverage you think you have in either case, combined with the likelihoods of the different scenarios. I plan to try a more quantitative analysis, which investigates what ranges of empirical beliefs about these factors correspond to what kind of work now. We could then try to gather some data on estimates (and variance in estimates) of these key values.
Thanks, good comments.
Which kind of work it’s better to focus depends on the relative leverage you think you have in either case, combined with the likelihoods of the different scenarios. I plan to try a more quantitative analysis, which investigates what ranges of empirical beliefs about these factors correspond to what kind of work now. We could then try to gather some data on estimates (and variance in estimates) of these key values.