I think there’s ample public evidence that Sam Altman is substantially less trustworthy than average for tech CEOs. Hopefully more private evidence would come out later that mostly exonerates him and puts him closer in character to “typical tech CEO”, but I don’t think that will happen. My guess right now is that the private evidence that will slowly filter out would make him look worse than what the public currently thinks, not better.
That said, I agree that “abandon all strategies that come into contact with him in any way” is probably unrealistic. Churchill worked with Stalin, there was a post-Cuban missile crisis hotline between the US and USSR, etc.
I also agree that OP was vastly overreaching when he said the public will identify EA with Sam Altman. I think that’s pretty unlikely as of the board exodus, if not earlier.
We’re still in the early (maybe early middle) stages of whatever is going to happen. I don’t think this is the time to pick winners and put all eggs in a single strategy. Besides, what’s the alternative? Policy? Do you think politicians aren’t shady cut-throat bad actors? That the other activists we would have to work alongside aren’t? Every strategy involves shifting semi-coalitions with shady cut-throat bad actors of some sort of another, you just try to do a good job navigating them and keep your own integrity intact.
I sort of agree, but I also think policy has more natural checks-and-balances. Part of the hard work of doing good as a society is that you try to shape institutions and incentives to create behavior, rather than rely primarily on heroic acts of personal integrity. My own guess is that thinking of “AI company” as an institution and set of incentives would make it clear that it’s worse for safety than other plausible structures, though I understand that some within EA disagree.
Linch—I agree with your first and last paragraphs.
I have my own doubts about our political institutions, political leaders, and regulators. They have many and obvious flaws. But they’re one of the few tools we have to hold corporate power accountable to the general public. We might as well use them, as best we can.
I think there’s ample public evidence that Sam Altman is substantially less trustworthy than average for tech CEOs. Hopefully more private evidence would come out later that mostly exonerates him and puts him closer in character to “typical tech CEO”, but I don’t think that will happen. My guess right now is that the private evidence that will slowly filter out would make him look worse than what the public currently thinks, not better.
That said, I agree that “abandon all strategies that come into contact with him in any way” is probably unrealistic. Churchill worked with Stalin, there was a post-Cuban missile crisis hotline between the US and USSR, etc.
I also agree that OP was vastly overreaching when he said the public will identify EA with Sam Altman. I think that’s pretty unlikely as of the board exodus, if not earlier.
I sort of agree, but I also think policy has more natural checks-and-balances. Part of the hard work of doing good as a society is that you try to shape institutions and incentives to create behavior, rather than rely primarily on heroic acts of personal integrity. My own guess is that thinking of “AI company” as an institution and set of incentives would make it clear that it’s worse for safety than other plausible structures, though I understand that some within EA disagree.
Linch—I agree with your first and last paragraphs.
I have my own doubts about our political institutions, political leaders, and regulators. They have many and obvious flaws. But they’re one of the few tools we have to hold corporate power accountable to the general public. We might as well use them, as best we can.