Thanks so much for writing this! I understood it much better than other comments.
do you find this framing useful?
I do! Especially the “epistemic uncertainty” vs “true randomness” framing I think is the core of the misunderstanding, I think we’re usually in the second scenario (and funding lots of different interventions), but indeed it was a very implicit assumption!
Thanks so much for writing this! I understood it much better than other comments.
I do! Especially the “epistemic uncertainty” vs “true randomness” framing I think is the core of the misunderstanding, I think we’re usually in the second scenario (and funding lots of different interventions), but indeed it was a very implicit assumption!
Edit: you might be interested in this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratio_estimator#Statistical_properties linked in another comment, for a formalization of the sample bias shown in the plot