I don’t think these Twitter polls are at all helpful and risk being misleading.
This is not just because they are highly non-representative as you admit but also there is no pre-event test to compare results to so it’s hard to draw conclusions about how the FTX situation contributes to the distribution of results you did get. It’s also impossible to know how the first poll connects to the second poll as they could be going to somewhat different audiences (for example—the first question got more votes) and you can’t do crosstabs between the two questions.
Rethink Priorities is doing some work looking into this and we could very easily and quickly do more work with representative samples if further commissioned to do so. It’s a bummer we don’t have EA Pulse running yet as this would be an ideal use case.
Peter—your concerns are valid regarding non-representative sampling, and the lack of a pre/post test comparison over time that would be more informative about the FTX effect.
I wouldn’t draw strong conclusions from any specific Twitter poll. My main goal here was to try to spark some further, more systematic research, with some more representative samples.
Also, I was just curious how my followers viewed EA at the moment, and having indulged that curiosity, thought I might as well share some results with this forum.
I don’t think these Twitter polls are at all helpful and risk being misleading.
This is not just because they are highly non-representative as you admit but also there is no pre-event test to compare results to so it’s hard to draw conclusions about how the FTX situation contributes to the distribution of results you did get. It’s also impossible to know how the first poll connects to the second poll as they could be going to somewhat different audiences (for example—the first question got more votes) and you can’t do crosstabs between the two questions.
Rethink Priorities is doing some work looking into this and we could very easily and quickly do more work with representative samples if further commissioned to do so. It’s a bummer we don’t have EA Pulse running yet as this would be an ideal use case.
Peter—your concerns are valid regarding non-representative sampling, and the lack of a pre/post test comparison over time that would be more informative about the FTX effect.
I wouldn’t draw strong conclusions from any specific Twitter poll. My main goal here was to try to spark some further, more systematic research, with some more representative samples.
Also, I was just curious how my followers viewed EA at the moment, and having indulged that curiosity, thought I might as well share some results with this forum.