I don’t feel very strong about any of your points, I just want our business and numbers reflected accurately. To your points:
Brad wrote the post, he didn’t have clear access to my numbers. Again, the pitch has the numbers, and happy to have Brad add them to the post (but don’t think it matters since I posted them in the comments).
2025 actuals Jan-Sep: 324K/-177K. Important to note than in retail Q4 usually amounts to 30-45% of yearly revenue instead of 25%. I won’t see such strong revenue growth because we lack funding, but the 450K quoted earlier is likely too conservative. Flat extrapolation would put us at 440K, and I have bigger stores, Q4 holiday season and some B2B deals just closed.
You are absolutely right that startups and non-profits present things as happening. I also agree it’s put too optimistic. Our financial models use market standard discounted cash flows to account for risks, and this remains a high-EV case.
In our latest bridge round (estimated 2025 financials in 2024, but closed april 2025) we raised 100K instead of the required 200K and we’re ending at 440-500K instead of the promised 580K revenue for 2025. I’m not sure how we would have performed with the actually needed capital, but currently we’re making 4-5 euro’s of revenue for each euro burned, so it seems realistic that my forecast was realistic.
I don’t want people to invest in BOAS without looking at it rigurously, because even with very large discounts (higher than market discount rates), BOAS has a higher EV than donating to give (feel free to adjust the mistakes in Patrick Grubans EV model, discount even more, add continuing values (or not if you somehow argue that you shouldn’t do that), and check for yourself). I’m still missing good economic points on why this couldn’t be an interesting but risky investment for future donations.
I will park this discussion from my end, I’ve made my points (people can dismiss them, more than fine with that) and I have funding to raise for a PFG, which is hard enough with accurate data and portrayals of our company. I encourage everyone to request our actual numbers, contracts and letters of intent, and our different financial models (base, worst, minimum funding cases), and come and jump on a call with me. I wish you and EAIF had done the same before dismissing it.
Thanks for following BOAS, and I hope to prove you wrong in the future.
I don’t feel very strong about any of your points, I just want our business and numbers reflected accurately. To your points:
Brad wrote the post, he didn’t have clear access to my numbers. Again, the pitch has the numbers, and happy to have Brad add them to the post (but don’t think it matters since I posted them in the comments).
2025 actuals Jan-Sep: 324K/-177K. Important to note than in retail Q4 usually amounts to 30-45% of yearly revenue instead of 25%. I won’t see such strong revenue growth because we lack funding, but the 450K quoted earlier is likely too conservative. Flat extrapolation would put us at 440K, and I have bigger stores, Q4 holiday season and some B2B deals just closed.
You are absolutely right that startups and non-profits present things as happening. I also agree it’s put too optimistic. Our financial models use market standard discounted cash flows to account for risks, and this remains a high-EV case.
In our latest bridge round (estimated 2025 financials in 2024, but closed april 2025) we raised 100K instead of the required 200K and we’re ending at 440-500K instead of the promised 580K revenue for 2025. I’m not sure how we would have performed with the actually needed capital, but currently we’re making 4-5 euro’s of revenue for each euro burned, so it seems realistic that my forecast was realistic.
I don’t want people to invest in BOAS without looking at it rigurously, because even with very large discounts (higher than market discount rates), BOAS has a higher EV than donating to give (feel free to adjust the mistakes in Patrick Grubans EV model, discount even more, add continuing values (or not if you somehow argue that you shouldn’t do that), and check for yourself). I’m still missing good economic points on why this couldn’t be an interesting but risky investment for future donations.
I will park this discussion from my end, I’ve made my points (people can dismiss them, more than fine with that) and I have funding to raise for a PFG, which is hard enough with accurate data and portrayals of our company. I encourage everyone to request our actual numbers, contracts and letters of intent, and our different financial models (base, worst, minimum funding cases), and come and jump on a call with me. I wish you and EAIF had done the same before dismissing it.
Thanks for following BOAS, and I hope to prove you wrong in the future.