Late comment, I basically agree with the point being made here that we should avoid committing a fallacy of assuming work done is constant/lump of labor fallacies, but I don’t think this weakens the argument that human work will be replaced by AI work totally, for 2 reasons:
In a world where you can copy AI labor hugely readily, wages fall for the same reason why prices fall when more goods are supplied, and in particular humans have a biological minimum wage of 20-100 watts that fundamentally makes them unemployable once AIs can be run for cheaper than this, and human wages are likely to fall below subsistence if AIs are copied hugely.
While more work will happen from growing the economy, it is still better to invest in AIs to do the work than it is to invest in humans, and thus even while labor grows, human labor specifically can fall to essentially 0, so the automation hypothesis is at least a consistent hypothesis to hold economically.
Late comment, I basically agree with the point being made here that we should avoid committing a fallacy of assuming work done is constant/lump of labor fallacies, but I don’t think this weakens the argument that human work will be replaced by AI work totally, for 2 reasons:
In a world where you can copy AI labor hugely readily, wages fall for the same reason why prices fall when more goods are supplied, and in particular humans have a biological minimum wage of 20-100 watts that fundamentally makes them unemployable once AIs can be run for cheaper than this, and human wages are likely to fall below subsistence if AIs are copied hugely.
While more work will happen from growing the economy, it is still better to invest in AIs to do the work than it is to invest in humans, and thus even while labor grows, human labor specifically can fall to essentially 0, so the automation hypothesis is at least a consistent hypothesis to hold economically.