I feel that the book contains too much fluff and even these commandments, despite appearing useful, seem to lack enough specificity to be useful. Does anyone have other book recommendations or guidelines for improving one’s forecasting and probabilistic thinking? At the end of the day, it’s important to actually practice forecasting and thinking probabilistically, but specific information for how to do that would be useful. E.g. how do you actually determine 40⁄60 and 45⁄55 or even 43⁄57 probabilities?
I have a couple more sections of Superforecasting I think are particularly important I intend to reproduce on the EA Forum. Someone told me publicly reproducing large chunks of the whole book on a blog might not go well with either Tetlock or his publishers. If you send me a PM with questions about what parts of the book you’re most curious about, I can fill you in privately.
Did you ever publish this anywhere? I see that this comment was placed a LONG time ago but I would still be interested in a really good summary of this work.
I feel that the book contains too much fluff and even these commandments, despite appearing useful, seem to lack enough specificity to be useful. Does anyone have other book recommendations or guidelines for improving one’s forecasting and probabilistic thinking? At the end of the day, it’s important to actually practice forecasting and thinking probabilistically, but specific information for how to do that would be useful. E.g. how do you actually determine 40⁄60 and 45⁄55 or even 43⁄57 probabilities?
I have a couple more sections of Superforecasting I think are particularly important I intend to reproduce on the EA Forum. Someone told me publicly reproducing large chunks of the whole book on a blog might not go well with either Tetlock or his publishers. If you send me a PM with questions about what parts of the book you’re most curious about, I can fill you in privately.
Did you ever publish this anywhere? I see that this comment was placed a LONG time ago but I would still be interested in a really good summary of this work.