Yes, I agree that there’s a non-negligible P that this will happen and that some events will be very harmful (heavy-tailed). Currently, however, saying that it’s >10% seems too high but I could definitely change my mind. But I’m sufficiently worried about this to be skeptical of broad and low-fidelity outreach and I solicit advice from people who are generally skeptical of all forms of movement-building to be sure that we’re sufficiently circumspect in what we do.
The point was that there is a non-negligible probability that EA will end up negative.
Yes, I agree that there’s a non-negligible P that this will happen and that some events will be very harmful (heavy-tailed). Currently, however, saying that it’s >10% seems too high but I could definitely change my mind. But I’m sufficiently worried about this to be skeptical of broad and low-fidelity outreach and I solicit advice from people who are generally skeptical of all forms of movement-building to be sure that we’re sufficiently circumspect in what we do.