Given this looks very much like a religious belief I doubt there is any type of argumentation that will convince the devout adherents of the ideology of the incredulity of their beliefs.
I’d be interested in whether you actually tried that, and whether it’s possible to read your arguments somewhere, or whether you just saw superficial similarity between religious beliefs and the AI risk community and therefore decided that you don’t want to discuss your counterarguments with anybody.
There have been loads of arguments offered on the forum and through other sources like books, articles on other websites, podcasts, interviews, papers etc. So I don’t think that what’s lacking are arguments or evidence. I think the issue is the mentality some people in EA have when it comes to AI. Are people who are waiting for people to bring them arguments to convince them of something really interested in getting different perspectives? Why not just go look for differing perspectives yourself? This is a known human characteristic, if someone really wants to believe in something they can believe it even to their own detriment and will not seek out information that may contradict with their beliefs (I was fascinated by the tales of COVID patients denying that COVID exists even when dying from it in an ICU). I witnessed this lack of curiosity in my own cohort that completed AGISF. We had more questions than answers at the end of the course and never really settled anything during our meetings other than minor definitions here and there but despite that, some of the folks in my cohort went on to work or try work on AI safety and solicit funding without either learning more about AI itself(some of them didn’t have much of a technical background) or trying to clarify their confusion and understanding of the arguments. I also know another fellow from the same run of AGISF who got funding as an AI safety researcher when they knew so little about how AI actually works. They are all very nice amicable people and despite all the conversations I’ve had with them they don’t seem open to the idea of changing their beliefs even when there are a lot of holes in the positions they have and you directly point out those holes to them. In what other contexts are people not open to the idea of changing their beliefs other than in religious or other superstitious contexts? Well the other case I can think of is when having a certain belief is tied to having an income, reputation or something else that is valuable to a person. This is why the conflict of interest at the source of funding pushing a certain belief is so pernicious because it really can affect beliefs downstream.
There have been loads of arguments offered on the forum and through other sources like books, articles on other websites, podcasts, interviews, papers etc. So I don’t think that what’s lacking are arguments or evidence.
I’d still be grateful if you could post a link to the best argument (according to your own impression) by some well-respected scholar against AGI risk. If there are “loads of arguments”, this shouldn’t be hard. Somebody asked for something like that here, and there aren’t so many convincing answers, and no answers that would basically end the cause-area comprehensively and authoritatively.
I think the issue is the mentality some people in EA have when it comes to AI. Are people who are waiting for people to bring them arguments to convince them of something really interested in getting different perspectives?
I think so—see footnote 2 of the LessWrong post linked above.
Why not just go look for differing perspectives yourself?
Asking people for arguments is often one of the best ways to look for differing perspectives, in particular if these people have strongly implied that plenty of such arguments exist.
This is a known human characteristic, if someone really wants to believe in something they can believe it even to their own detriment and will not seek out information that may contradict with their beliefs
That this “known human characteristic” strongly applies to people working on AI safety is, up to now, nothing more than a claim.
(I was fascinated by the tales of COVID patients denying that COVID exists even when dying from it in an ICU).
I share that fascination. In my impression, such COVID patients have often previously dismissed COVID as a kind of quasi-religious death cult, implied that worrying about catastrophic risks such as pandemics is nonsense, and claimed that no arguments would convince the devout adherents of the ‘pandemic ideology’ of the incredulity of their beliefs.
Therefore, it only seems helpful to debate in this style when you have already formed a strong opinion as to which side is right; otherwise you can always just claim that the other side’s reasoning is motivated by religion/ideology/etc. Otherwise, the arguments seem like Bulverism.
I witnessed this lack of curiosity in my own cohort that completed AGISF. … They are all very nice amicable people and despite all the conversations I’ve had with them they don’t seem open to the idea of changing their beliefs even when there are a lot of holes in the positions they have and you directly point out those holes to them. In what other contexts are people not open to the idea of changing their beliefs other than in religious or other superstitious contexts? Well the other case I can think of is when having a certain belief is tied to having an income, reputation or something else that is valuable to a person.
I don’t work in AI Safety, I am not active in that area, and I am happy when I get arguments that tell me I don’t have to worry about things. So I can guarantee that I’d be quite open for such arguments. And given that you imply that the only reasons why these nice people still want to work in AI Safety is that they were quasi-religious or otherwise biased, I am looking forward to your object-level arguments against the field of AI Safety.
Sorry but I’m not going to do your homework for you. If you want to find arguments for or against AI safety go look for them yourself. If want to actually find out what leading AI researchers think you can find that as well. I have no special insight over the many people who have expertise in the field of AI so I am not the best source and my conclusions could be wrong. I’m still learning more all the time as I increase my expertise in AI. If you have done your homework and have come to the conclusion that AI safety as a field is warranted then well and good. If you are looking for someone who will argue with you in order to convince you one way or another then I hope someone is willing to do that for you either way good luck!
If you don’t want to justify your claims, that’s perfectly fine, no one is forcing you to discuss in this forum. But if you do, please don’t act as if it’s my “homework” to back up your claims with sources and examples. I also find it inappropriate that you throw around many accusations like “quasi religious”, “I doubt there is any type of argumentation that will convince the devout adherents of the ideology of the incredulity of their beliefs”, “just prone to conspiracy theories like QAnon”, while at the same time you are unwilling or unable to name any examples for “what experts in the field think about what AI can actually do”.
I’d be interested in whether you actually tried that, and whether it’s possible to read your arguments somewhere, or whether you just saw superficial similarity between religious beliefs and the AI risk community and therefore decided that you don’t want to discuss your counterarguments with anybody.
There have been loads of arguments offered on the forum and through other sources like books, articles on other websites, podcasts, interviews, papers etc. So I don’t think that what’s lacking are arguments or evidence. I think the issue is the mentality some people in EA have when it comes to AI. Are people who are waiting for people to bring them arguments to convince them of something really interested in getting different perspectives? Why not just go look for differing perspectives yourself? This is a known human characteristic, if someone really wants to believe in something they can believe it even to their own detriment and will not seek out information that may contradict with their beliefs (I was fascinated by the tales of COVID patients denying that COVID exists even when dying from it in an ICU). I witnessed this lack of curiosity in my own cohort that completed AGISF. We had more questions than answers at the end of the course and never really settled anything during our meetings other than minor definitions here and there but despite that, some of the folks in my cohort went on to work or try work on AI safety and solicit funding without either learning more about AI itself(some of them didn’t have much of a technical background) or trying to clarify their confusion and understanding of the arguments. I also know another fellow from the same run of AGISF who got funding as an AI safety researcher when they knew so little about how AI actually works. They are all very nice amicable people and despite all the conversations I’ve had with them they don’t seem open to the idea of changing their beliefs even when there are a lot of holes in the positions they have and you directly point out those holes to them. In what other contexts are people not open to the idea of changing their beliefs other than in religious or other superstitious contexts? Well the other case I can think of is when having a certain belief is tied to having an income, reputation or something else that is valuable to a person. This is why the conflict of interest at the source of funding pushing a certain belief is so pernicious because it really can affect beliefs downstream.
I’d still be grateful if you could post a link to the best argument (according to your own impression) by some well-respected scholar against AGI risk. If there are “loads of arguments”, this shouldn’t be hard. Somebody asked for something like that here, and there aren’t so many convincing answers, and no answers that would basically end the cause-area comprehensively and authoritatively.
I think so—see footnote 2 of the LessWrong post linked above.
Asking people for arguments is often one of the best ways to look for differing perspectives, in particular if these people have strongly implied that plenty of such arguments exist.
That this “known human characteristic” strongly applies to people working on AI safety is, up to now, nothing more than a claim.
I share that fascination. In my impression, such COVID patients have often previously dismissed COVID as a kind of quasi-religious death cult, implied that worrying about catastrophic risks such as pandemics is nonsense, and claimed that no arguments would convince the devout adherents of the ‘pandemic ideology’ of the incredulity of their beliefs.
Therefore, it only seems helpful to debate in this style when you have already formed a strong opinion as to which side is right; otherwise you can always just claim that the other side’s reasoning is motivated by religion/ideology/etc. Otherwise, the arguments seem like Bulverism.
I don’t work in AI Safety, I am not active in that area, and I am happy when I get arguments that tell me I don’t have to worry about things. So I can guarantee that I’d be quite open for such arguments. And given that you imply that the only reasons why these nice people still want to work in AI Safety is that they were quasi-religious or otherwise biased, I am looking forward to your object-level arguments against the field of AI Safety.
Here are a couple of links:
What does it mean to align AI with human values?
The implausibility of intelligence explosion
Sorry but I’m not going to do your homework for you. If you want to find arguments for or against AI safety go look for them yourself. If want to actually find out what leading AI researchers think you can find that as well. I have no special insight over the many people who have expertise in the field of AI so I am not the best source and my conclusions could be wrong. I’m still learning more all the time as I increase my expertise in AI. If you have done your homework and have come to the conclusion that AI safety as a field is warranted then well and good. If you are looking for someone who will argue with you in order to convince you one way or another then I hope someone is willing to do that for you either way good luck!
If you don’t want to justify your claims, that’s perfectly fine, no one is forcing you to discuss in this forum. But if you do, please don’t act as if it’s my “homework” to back up your claims with sources and examples. I also find it inappropriate that you throw around many accusations like “quasi religious”, “I doubt there is any type of argumentation that will convince the devout adherents of the ideology of the incredulity of their beliefs”, “just prone to conspiracy theories like QAnon”, while at the same time you are unwilling or unable to name any examples for “what experts in the field think about what AI can actually do”.