I struggle with this stuff so please take this lightly.
But doesn’t he give some clearer stuff?
Doesn’t he talk about how you might consider every century as one of 100,000 years, but alternatively you could look at centuries of rapid economic growth, of which there are three? Suddenly the prior probability that this is the most important one seems to go down a lot
Likewise, perhaps a more important tech is possible after PASTA but if not, (medium if) then it’s not that unlikely we develop it this century. We haven’t tried for that long, we’ve recently made big breakthroughs and a lot more resources are going to it.
The creation of an intelligence that much surpass us probably is the biggest event in many species, after their own evolution. So again, this could put it in the top two.
I guess, this doesn’t seem that robust to me sure, but I guess it doesn’t seem not at all robust either. And maybe I’ve missed it (possible my comprehension is pretty poor) but you don’t seem to have mentioned these.
Are these the kinds of claims you want or do you want others?
I struggle with this stuff so please take this lightly.
But doesn’t he give some clearer stuff?
Doesn’t he talk about how you might consider every century as one of 100,000 years, but alternatively you could look at centuries of rapid economic growth, of which there are three? Suddenly the prior probability that this is the most important one seems to go down a lot
Likewise, perhaps a more important tech is possible after PASTA but if not, (medium if) then it’s not that unlikely we develop it this century. We haven’t tried for that long, we’ve recently made big breakthroughs and a lot more resources are going to it.
The creation of an intelligence that much surpass us probably is the biggest event in many species, after their own evolution. So again, this could put it in the top two.
I guess, this doesn’t seem that robust to me sure, but I guess it doesn’t seem not at all robust either. And maybe I’ve missed it (possible my comprehension is pretty poor) but you don’t seem to have mentioned these.
Are these the kinds of claims you want or do you want others?