Metaculus is (as of posting this comment) on 5% for Nuclear Detonation Fatality By 2024 .
Why was this prediction removed?
You have to sign-up for the nuclear risk tournament to see it (which doesn’t come with any commitments to participate afaict).
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/
Moreover, Metaculus is currently on 10% for >100 nuclear detonations given one fatality by 2024. Seems about right. a bit of an underestimate.
Metaculus is (as of posting this comment) on 5% for Nuclear Detonation Fatality By 2024 .
Why was this prediction removed?
You have to sign-up for the nuclear risk tournament to see it (which doesn’t come with any commitments to participate afaict).
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/
Moreover, Metaculus is currently on 10% for >100 nuclear detonations given one fatality by 2024. Seems about right.
a bit of an underestimate.