Previously Director of Research and Head of Coaching at Effective Thesis; Facilitator on Rethink Wellbeing CBT program; Facilitator on EA educational programmes; Social Entrepreneur at Prague Fall Season; University Lecturer, and many other things.
Conor_Spence
Karma: 52
Look forward to seeing you guys on Saturday! :)
The book will be released very soon on August 16 ( US), and September 1 (UK). Now seems like a good time to signal boost if you’re thinking of doing this.
Looks like this will be released on August 16 ( US), and September 1 (UK). Seems like a good time to signal boost.
EAGxBerlin (16 − 18 September) - applications seem to close 1 September.
https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxberlin-2022/
Moreover, Metaculus is currently on 10% for >100 nuclear detonations given one fatality by 2024. Seems about right.
a bit of an underestimate.
Thanks Jan! Just saw this after creating my social media blurb. I’ve added it to my other comment here.
More details you can add (if needed):
-----------Most of the questions are simple ‘clickable’ answer choices, but the final question gives you an opportunity to write further comments / make requests if you like. For example, you could ask for:
An EU Commissioner for Animal Welfare.
Specific legislation for fish.
Better protection for animals used in economic activity in general (not just farming).
Legislation based on the ‘Five Domains’ framework.
A ban on cephalopod farming.
A ban on fur farming.
It’s best if you write these comments IN YOUR OWN WORDS so not everyone writes exactly the same words!
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Or please see suggestions given above by Neil and Jan! Thanks!
I created a short blurb for use on social media posts. Feel free to use it:
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This is probably the most impactful action you can take for animals this year!The European Union (EU) is currently conducting what may be the most important survey ever created for animals.
The EU is revising its animal welfare laws and is using this survey to collect input. Some countries have very few responses so far, and so this seems a particularly low effort way to influence major policy decisions at the EU level. It doesn’t take long to complete and is worth doing even if you are not an EU citizen.
Here’s a text guide with suggested responses for the survey.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/13q0Oya3CpuBuzF2zuBsFf6vmjdrYaJeLeiAB1nrrOks/edit?usp=sharingThese suggestions are taken from the Anima International video guide https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9rpDREdp10 which are based on advice from EU animal advocacy experts.
Photo by Sam Carter (Unsplash)
Thanks, Peter, glad this text guide is useful! For some reason the images in the google doc guide don’t display very well on my phone. I’m not sure if others will have this issue. It displays clearly on the computer though. I guess most people will complete the EU survey at a computer alongside the guide, so it may not be an issue.
Great. Thanks Nathan! :D
I’ve written a Google doc guide showing how to fill-in the survey with screenshots (example below) so people can complete the survey quickly and conveniently.
I used the suggestions from the Anima International video on YouTube and their website that you mentioned. Thanks for creating this post!
https://docs.google.com/document/d/13q0Oya3CpuBuzF2zuBsFf6vmjdrYaJeLeiAB1nrrOks/edit?usp=sharing
Sorry, the link to the ‘live’ statistics from Chinese Health centres was broken:
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
I’ve also updated the link in the original post.
Here’s Google Translate if you need it: https://translate.google.com/
I am an EA living in China right now. Thanks for sharing this post on the Coronavirus. I am also very interested in these questions.
We do not know what percentage of people experience symptoms so mild that they do not seek medical attention and so do not appear in the ‘Suspected’ or ‘Confirmed’ case statistics.
here: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
and here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Here’s Google Translate if you need it: https://translate.google.com/
Nevertheless, as you mentioned, attempts have been made to model the spread of the infection and to estimate the number of people carrying the virus so far.
I have created a very simple spreadsheet with three scenarios here:
The Red scenario = 50% of infections go undiagnosed (unrecorded).
The Yellow scenario = 70% of infections go undiagnosed (unrecorded).
The Green scenario = 85% of infections go undiagnosed (unrecorded).
Each scenario has different estimates of the ‘real’ number of infections and percentages that progress to either a serious/critical condition or to death.
I found the serious/critical condition numbers here: https://twitter.com/BNODesk
We can perhaps use these scenarios to roughly ‘frame’ whether this virus is similar or much worse than the seasonal flu. Thoughts?
There are potential inaccuracies with the numbers in the three scenarios.
On the potential positive (good) side, perhaps the high critical condition and death rates reflect the early stages of treating a novel virus and it’s possible that the rate will not be so high in future as better treatment protocols are followed. Certainly the rates seem much worse in Hubei Province compared to the rest of China and the rest of the world.
On the negative (bad) side, the death rate and serious/critical condition rate may turn out to be higher than the number reflected here. This is because many of the ‘suspected and confirmed’ cases will later progress to a serious/critical condition or death. There is likely to be a time lag in this progression which we do not yet see in the stats.
Moreover, perhaps the virus could become more deadly if medical services were to become overwhelmed.
Perhaps the questions could be summarised:
What percentage of cases go unrecorded (undiagnosed)? What is the real number of people with infections right now?
Which scenario: Green, Yellow or Red is closest to the truth? What confidence would you assign to the probability of each of the three scenarios?
What is the ‘true’ risk of progressing to a serious/critical condition or death once infected with Coronavirus?
I would love to hear any thoughts from others on any of the points made here.
This is great, Erwan! Thanks for sharing this.