Here’s a quick and dirty version of taking the OP grant database and then for ones in the last 9 months categorizing them first by whether they seemed to be motivated by longtermist considerations and for the ones I marked as yes by what phase they seemed to be.
Of 24 grants I thought were unambiguously longtermist, there was 1 I counted as unambiguously Phase 2. There were a couple more I thought might well be Phase 2, and a handful which might be Phase 2 (or have Phase 2 elements) but I was sort of sceptical, as well as three more which were unambiguously Phase 2 but I was uncertain whether they made from longtermist motivations.
Yeah. I don’t have more understanding of the specifics than are given on that grant page, and I don’t know the theory of impact the grantmakers had in mind, but it looks to me like something that’s useful because it feeds into future strategy by “our crowd”, rather than because it will have outputs that put the world in a generically better position.
I’d find it really useful to see a list of recent Open Phil grants, categorised by phase 2 vs. 1.
This would help me to better understand the distinction, and also make it more convincing that most effort is going into phase 1 rather than phase 2.
Here’s a quick and dirty version of taking the OP grant database and then for ones in the last 9 months categorizing them first by whether they seemed to be motivated by longtermist considerations and for the ones I marked as yes by what phase they seemed to be.
Of 24 grants I thought were unambiguously longtermist, there was 1 I counted as unambiguously Phase 2. There were a couple more I thought might well be Phase 2, and a handful which might be Phase 2 (or have Phase 2 elements) but I was sort of sceptical, as well as three more which were unambiguously Phase 2 but I was uncertain whether they made from longtermist motivations.
I may well have miscategorized some things!
Super helpful, thank you!
Just zooming in on the two biggest ones. One was CSET, which I think I understand why is Phase 1.
The other is this one: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/massachusetts-institute-of-technology-ai-trends-and-impacts-research-2022
Is this Phase 1 because it’s essentially an input to future AI strategy?
Yeah. I don’t have more understanding of the specifics than are given on that grant page, and I don’t know the theory of impact the grantmakers had in mind, but it looks to me like something that’s useful because it feeds into future strategy by “our crowd”, rather than because it will have outputs that put the world in a generically better position.