I have been ruminating about this issue within EA for ages, and recently got the opportunity to speak to people about it at EAG and was somewhat alarmed at hearing quite half-hearted responses to the question—So thank you for writing this up in an accessible way.
I think as you were suggesting in ‘virtuous cycles’, phase 2 work (or research) could come to significantly affect phase 1 work. E.g. If phase 2 research or work on AI alignment came to find that influencing the other groups developing AI to implement the successful phase 1 work is not feasible (foreign governments for example), then it may trigger a reconfiguration of what phase 1 work needs to look like. I.e. is the intention of phase 1 to solve the alignment problem or does it have to become to solve alignment and be the first to develop AGI (excuse my superficial knowledge on AI alignment, the example, not the details, are what’s relevant!)
I’ve also heard from a phase 2 type AI group that they have struggled to get funding and that there are very few people working in this area, suggesting again that your point is very valid and worth attention.
I have been ruminating about this issue within EA for ages, and recently got the opportunity to speak to people about it at EAG and was somewhat alarmed at hearing quite half-hearted responses to the question—So thank you for writing this up in an accessible way.
I think as you were suggesting in ‘virtuous cycles’, phase 2 work (or research) could come to significantly affect phase 1 work.
E.g. If phase 2 research or work on AI alignment came to find that influencing the other groups developing AI to implement the successful phase 1 work is not feasible (foreign governments for example), then it may trigger a reconfiguration of what phase 1 work needs to look like. I.e. is the intention of phase 1 to solve the alignment problem or does it have to become to solve alignment and be the first to develop AGI (excuse my superficial knowledge on AI alignment, the example, not the details, are what’s relevant!)
I’ve also heard from a phase 2 type AI group that they have struggled to get funding and that there are very few people working in this area, suggesting again that your point is very valid and worth attention.
You spent too much time in Phase 1 :P