Thanks so much for your comment, Owen! I really appreciate it.
I was under the impression (perhaps incomplete!) that your definition of “phase 2” was “an action whose upside is in its impact,” and “phase 1” was “an action whose upside is in reducing uncertainty about what is the highest impact option for future actions.”
I was suggesting that I think we already know that recruiting people away from AI capabilities research (especially into AI safety) has a substantially high impact, and this impact per unit of time is likely to improve with experience. So pondering without experientially trying it is worse for optimizing its impact, for reducing uncertainty.
That seems archetypically Phase 1 to me? (There’s a slight complication about the thing being recruited to not quite being EA)
But I also think most people doing Phase 1 work should stay doing Phase 1 work! I’m making claims about the margin in the portfolio.
Thanks so much for your comment, Owen! I really appreciate it.
I was under the impression (perhaps incomplete!) that your definition of “phase 2” was “an action whose upside is in its impact,” and “phase 1” was “an action whose upside is in reducing uncertainty about what is the highest impact option for future actions.”
I was suggesting that I think we already know that recruiting people away from AI capabilities research (especially into AI safety) has a substantially high impact, and this impact per unit of time is likely to improve with experience. So pondering without experientially trying it is worse for optimizing its impact, for reducing uncertainty.