Re. Gripe #3 (/#3.5): I also think AI stuff is super important and that we’re mostly not ready for Phase 2 stuff. But I’m also very worried that a lot of work people do on it is kind of missing the point of what ends up mattering …
So I think that AI alignment etc. would be in a better place if we put more effort into Phase 1.5 stuff. I think that this is supported by having some EA attention on Phase 2 work for things which aren’t directly about alignment, but affect the background situation of the world and so are relevant for how well AI goes. Having the concrete Phase 2 work there encourages serious Phase 1.5 work about such things — which probably helps to encourage serious Phase 1.5 work about other AI things (like how we should eventually handle deployment).
Re. Gripe #3 (/#3.5): I also think AI stuff is super important and that we’re mostly not ready for Phase 2 stuff. But I’m also very worried that a lot of work people do on it is kind of missing the point of what ends up mattering …
So I think that AI alignment etc. would be in a better place if we put more effort into Phase 1.5 stuff. I think that this is supported by having some EA attention on Phase 2 work for things which aren’t directly about alignment, but affect the background situation of the world and so are relevant for how well AI goes. Having the concrete Phase 2 work there encourages serious Phase 1.5 work about such things — which probably helps to encourage serious Phase 1.5 work about other AI things (like how we should eventually handle deployment).