I recently learned of this effort to model AI x-risk, which may be similar to the sort of thing you’re looking for, though I don’t think they actually put numbers on the parameters in their model, and they don’t use any well-known formal method. Otherwise I suppose the closest thing is the Carlsmith report, which is a probabilistic risk assessment, but again not using any formal method.
I recently learned of this effort to model AI x-risk, which may be similar to the sort of thing you’re looking for, though I don’t think they actually put numbers on the parameters in their model, and they don’t use any well-known formal method. Otherwise I suppose the closest thing is the Carlsmith report, which is a probabilistic risk assessment, but again not using any formal method.