I recently learned of this effort to model AI x-risk, which may be similar to the sort of thing you’re looking for, though I don’t think they actually put numbers on the parameters in their model, and they don’t use any well-known formal method. Otherwise I suppose the closest thing is the Carlsmith report, which is a probabilistic risk assessment, but again not using any formal method.
Has there been any formal probabilistic risk assessment on AI X-risk? e.g. fault tree analysis or event tree analysis — anything of that sort?
Here’s a fault tree analysis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.06924
Review of risk assessment techniques that could be used: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.08823
Applying ideas from systems safety to AI: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.05862
Applying ideas from systems safety to AI (part 2): https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02972
Applying AI to ideas from systems safety (lol): https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.01246
I recently learned of this effort to model AI x-risk, which may be similar to the sort of thing you’re looking for, though I don’t think they actually put numbers on the parameters in their model, and they don’t use any well-known formal method. Otherwise I suppose the closest thing is the Carlsmith report, which is a probabilistic risk assessment, but again not using any formal method.